There Is No Place Like Home For FSU, Wake on Wednesday

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, January 10, 2018 12:50 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2018 12:50 PM UTC

Our best bets for Wednesday feature a pair of ACC teams sporting impressive home win streaks. See what these are when Louisville squares off at No. 23 Florida State and Virginia Tech travels down the Blue Ridge to take on Wake Forest in Winston Salem.

Louisville vs No. 23 Florida State (-6)

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Free NCAAB Pick: FSU -6Best Line Offered: at Heritage

For a team picked to finish in the top 5 of the ACC preseason media poll, Louisville’s (11-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) offense stinks. The team has endured a tumultuous time off the court due to an investigation over improper payments, but many of the scoring issues are fundamental in nature. It ranks 95th in adjusted efficiency per KenPom, putting up 107.9 points per 100 possessions.

The problems are twofold. First, the Cardinals stand around a lot on offense and rely too much on iso-play, often forced into bad jumpers. Their .470 assist-to-field goals made rate ranks 292 out of 351 teams nationally. The squad is also guilty of gifting soft turnovers: lazy passes, poorly executed inbound sets, etc. It averages 14.8 turnovers per play. These deficiencies will be tough to correct on the road versus a ranked opponent.

Florida State (12-3 SU. 9-3 ATS) is 1-2 in ACC play after a roller coaster week in which it beat UNC (81-80), but fell at No. 15 Miami (80-74) on Sunday. Nonetheless, the program ranks in the AP Top 25 poll for the fifth consecutive week with Louisville and Syracuse up next at Donald L. Tucker Civic Center. The Seminoles ride a 28-game win streak in the building. They are 18-5-1 ATS in these games.

Hot shooting is fueling the remarkable run. FSU averages 89.9 points per game on 51.5 percent shooting in this stretch. The numbers dip slightly to 86.2 on 49.8 percent from the floor in 12 hosting ACC foes. It has put up 73 points or more in all but one. Equate this with the fact the Cardinals have scored 57, 61, and 69 points in their three true road tests against Purdue, Kentucky, and Clemson this season, and it appears the visitors lack the firepower to contend. Lay the 6 points with FSU. Louisville is not the team to snap the streak.

Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest (-1)

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Free NCAAB Pick: Under 157.5Best Line Offered: at Heritage

Wake Forest (8-7 SU, 6-6 ATS) has won its last five ACC games at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum, its longest conference home streak since the 2008-09 season. Tough defense is the answer, allowing 66.8 points per game on 38.3 percent shooting. Louisville is the only opponent to post more than 69 points in this span. All but one team averaged greater than 72 per game entering.

The Demon Deacons have held six of their last eight opponents under their projected team total in the betting market. They are nixing many second-chance opportunities with strong rebounding. Head coach Danny Manning is sharing his box-out secrets folks. Wake is +20 on the boards over its last two games and is the only team to outrebound Syracuse all year. Their 3-point defense is improving as well. The Deacs own an unhealthy 38.9 percent opponent 3-point rate for the year, but has tightened up to 33.3 percent since Christmas.

It’s been a tale of two seasons for the Virginia Tech (12-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) offense. Through its first eight games, the team averaged 96.8 points per game on 54.0 percent shooting. Since, the numbers have nosedived to 75.2 and 49.8 respectively. Overall, the unit ranks 45th in adjusted efficiency according to KenPom.

This meeting is a race to 80 points according to the game total (158). We’re not sure either team gets there. Pick ‘under’ for your best bet.

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