Texas vs. Iowa State NCAA Basketball Picks: Back Longhorns +5.5 With Confidence

Nikki Adams

Saturday, February 13, 2016 7:30 PM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 13, 2016 7:30 PM UTC

Texas takes on Iowa State in a busy day around the NCAAB league. Find out what NCAA basketball odds are on offer and where we spot the value NCAA Basketball picks.

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NCAA Basketball Picks: Texas +5.5 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Texas (16-8, 7-4 Big 12)
Texas Longhorns are enjoying a solid season behind a 16-8 SU mark, which includes an irreproachable 12-1 SU mark at home, but a so-so 3-4 SU mark on the road and a 1-2 SU mark on neutral territory.

Most recently, the Longhorns are coming off a narrow 63-60 loss to Oklahoma on the road in which they covered as the 7.5-point road underdogs, mind. Indeed, it marked their seventh straight cover on the NCAA basketball odds board behind a 5-2 SU mark. In their last ten games they are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS.

The loss to Oklahoma saw a four-game winning streak snapped, a run of form that included wins over TX Christian, Vanderbilt, Baylor and Texas Tech and a 12.25-point winning margin on average.

Overall, Texas Longhorns are 12-11-0 ATS on the season with a 5.8-point winning margin and a plus 2.3-point differential versus the spread. As the away team, they are the best in Big 12 with a 5-2 ATS record, underscored by a 0.6-point losing margin and a plus 4.6-point differential versus the spread.

In Conference games, the Longhorns are tied at the top of the table with W Virginia on a 7-4 ATS record, which in their case includes a 2.9-point winning margin and a plus 3.3-point differential versus the spread.

After a loss, Texas are 6-1 SU and 3-3 ATS with a 6.4-point winning margin and a plus 1.6-point differential versus the spread.


Iowa State (17-7, 6-5 Big 12)
Iowa State Cyclones are riding high on a 17-7 SU record on the season, which includes a solid 10-2 SU record at home and a 4-4 SU record on the road. In Big 12 play, they are only 6-5 SU though, which could be a cause for concern as the Cyclones look to back up their favourable NCAAB odds in this pivotal clash.

As it is, odds makers have installed the Cyclones as the home chalk. The NCAAB line opened on 5.5-points with the hosts to the good, but since open doors they’ve been adjusted down to 5-points at many reputable sportsbooks including BetCris, William Hill and Ladbrokes, to name a few.

It’s interesting to note that consensus betting polls reveal the public is split entirely down the middle on this game, a 50-50 split of spread tickets going either way, but with the Cyclones reversing on the NCAAB odds board ever so slightly it could be an indication of sharp money going towards the Longhorns.

Recent form could be the cause for this intriguing betting trend. The Cyclones have lost three of their last four games – Texas AM, W Virginia and Texas Tech – two of which had them as the chalk, including their last outing, an 85-82 loss to Texas Tech.

Overall, the Cyclones are 11-9-1 ATS on the season with an 8.5-point winning margin. At home, they are merely 4-4-1 ATS with a 12.8-point winning margin and a negative 1.1-point differential versus the spread.  In Conference play they are 6-5 ATS with a 3.3-point winning margin and negative 0.2-point differential versus the spread. After a loss, they are 3-3 ATS with a 3.2-point winning margin and a plus 0.1-point differential versus the spread.


Betting Verdict
Both sides come into this game looking to bounce back into winning form. Home advantage gives the Cyclones the edge according to the market, but the stats do tip the way of the Longhorns in our opinion. Plus, recent form is better with the visitors than the hosts. Push comes to shove, we’re shading the visiting Longhorns as the NCAA basketball pick, which is a line still available at 5Dimes and Heritage.

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