Texas A&M vs. Arkansas College Basketball Picks: Aggies Visit Fayetteville as Big Dogs

Saturday offers a massive slate of college hoops, but we’re honing in on an SEC matchup that quietly features one team that has turned into one of the hottest in the nation following a slow start. We break down Texas A&M-Arkansas with our top college basketball picks of the day.

Following a trip to the Elite Eight a year ago, the Arkansas Razorbacks came into this season with their sights set on another deep run through the NCAA Tournament. The Hogs had senior guard JD Notae returning to take on the go-to role in the offense, with sophomore forward Jaylin Williams primed to step into more significant minutes as an interior presence on an otherwise guard-oriented roster.

After opening the preseason ranked No. 16 in the AP Poll, the Razorbacks took some time to get things rolling. They’ve picked up the pace more recently, however, meaning a Texas A&M team coming off its first loss in SEC play may run into a buzzsaw on Saturday.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s college basketball matchup between Texas A&M and Arkansas (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Jan. 22, 8:30 p.m. ETTV: SEC NetworkLocation: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas Odds Analysis

Arkansas opened as an 8-point home favorite before the line moved to -9 at many U.S. Sportsbooks, including DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook. However, 73% of the handle and 70% of the bets are on the Aggies.

The total has remained steady after opening at 144.5, with bettors placing money pretty evenly on both sides of the line. There's a slight lean to the Over in the market with 59% of the money and 67% of the tickets.

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas Picks

Arkansas -9 (-105) ????Over 144.5 (-110) ???

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Texas A&M vs. Arkansas Predictions

Arkansas -9 (-105)

The Razorbacks (13-5, 3-3) raced off to the type of strong start you’d have anticipated for a team with their pedigree, opening non-conference play with nine straight wins. The Razorbacks hit an inexplicable lull thereafter. They dropped five of their next six games in a downturn that included a neutral-site loss to Hofstra. The struggles bled into the opening of SEC play, as the beleaguered Hogs simply weren’t themselves in losses to Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and this same Texas A&M (15-3, 4-1) team that they’ll meet for the second time on Saturday.

The Razorbacks were off track, but an 87-43 home shellacking of Missouri on Jan. 12, seemed to reset the course. Arkansas has since upset a ranked LSU team on the road and buried an average South Carolina team by 16 points last time out.

Texas A&M is trending in the other direction. Its once sterling record is beginning to look as though it was built behind smoke and mirrors. The Aggies survived at Missouri with a 67-64 win after opening the game down 12-0 through eight full minutes of play last Saturday. They held their own at home this week against a superior Kentucky team, but suffered their first loss of the conference schedule on Wednesday.

A&M has beaten Georgia, Missouri, and a then-turbulent Arkansas team by a combined 10 points. The Aggies thrashed Ole Miss convincingly (67-51), but the Rebels are beginning to look like a Wednesday participant in the SEC Tournament as a bottom four team in the conference. Texas A&M simply hasn’t been tested on the road in conference play the way it’s going to be tested on Saturday.

Arkansas wasn’t near the top of its game when it traveled to College Station earlier this month. Now, the No. 38 team in the KenPom.com rankings is back. The Razorbacks will use their superior offensive efficiency to run by the Aggies behind emergent efforts from Williams and Notae. Both teams run a guard-heavy rotation, but Arkansas will show that the depth and breadth of its talent runs deeper in a revenge spot on Saturday.

I like the Hogs by double-digits.

Over 144.5 (-110)

When the Aggies hosted the Razorbacks on Jan. 8, the home team scored an 86-81 victory. The total shattered the line for that game and the Over/Under set for the rematch.

The 86 points scored that day by Texas A&M was generally outside the norm for the Aggies offense. It remains tied for their highest scoring output of the season against a Division 1 opponent. Given that the last game happened so recently, one could generally expect a fundamental shift to the script of the second go-round. Both teams learned more about the tendencies of the other to lead to a tighter style of play.

Then again, the circumstances surrounding the renaissance for the Razorbacks could dictate another barn-burner in Fayetteville. At least for an Arkansas side that wants to prove its renewed style of play is here to stay.

Arkansas looks as sharp as it has all season. The Razorbacks will feed off their home environment in a chance to prove the loss to A&M on the road was a fluke. Arkansas averages 79.3 points per game. It hung that many on the Texas A&M defense on the road, even as it was going through its worst stretch of the season.

I look for the Hogs to hit 80 once again in this contest. With a double-digit win expected, the Aggies need only to convert into the high-60s to do their part in pushing this total Over.

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Texas A&M-Arkansas picks made 1/222022 at 11:35 a.m. ET.