Playing at home definitely has its advantages in college basketball. In this article, I want to highlight those teams that play much, much better at home than on the road. I want to pick up on records and trends that would make a winning team an auto-fade away from their home court. Let’s get to it!
*Records as of 1/27/16, Home SU vs. Away SU – Excludes neutral court gamesTexas Tech, Big 12: 12-1 vs. 1-4
Texas Tech had a cream puff schedule to open their year and didn’t play their first true road game until their 11th game of the season. Now that conference play has begun in the Big 12, don’t let the Red Raiders 14-6 SU record fool you into thinking that they can hang with teams on the road. Although they did just play Baylor tough and covered on the road for the first time since December.
Marshall, C-USA: 11-0 vs. 2-8
Marshall’s two road wins came after conference play began, and I won’t ding them much for trying to schedule tougher opponents on the road to begin their season. They’ve covered all 4 of their home conference games so far this season and are a perfect 11-0 SU at home while losing their only 2 road conference games SU and ATS. Marshall is ranked 7th in the country in points scored and can light up the scoreboard at home.
Michigan, Big 10: 12-2 vs. 0-5
Michigan’s early season win over Marquette is looking better by the minute, but the Wolverines have struggled in conference play so far on the road. They’ve been a better bet at home. Their two SU home losses were as listed favorites against Virginia Tech and Maryland – at least respectable competition. I’d consider fading Michigan’s home record against upcoming opponents Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin.
Syracuse, ACC: 12-2 vs. 0-5
All of Syracuse’s wins this year have come at home in the Carrier Dome. Other than that, they are getting their asses handed to them in away games. The Orange have yet to lose an away game by less than 10 points. A good example of their home/away discrepancy is their play against Boston College this year. They lost to BC by 15 points on the road on New Year’s Day just to beat them at home by 23 points 14 days later.Providence, Big East:11-2 vs. 1-6
Providence is near the basement of the Big East, but that hasn’t stopped them from holding serve at home against a cupcake early season schedule. In a tough Big East Conference, though, do not trust the Friars to beat anyone above them ATS on the road this year.Illinois, Big 10: 10-2 vs. 0-4
Illinois did not play a true road game until conference play began 14 games into their schedule. They’ve gotten blown out in nearly every one, and lost ATS as well. They’ve played like a different team at home, though, going 3-1 SU and ATS in conference play. Don’t touch them on the road, but the Illini should have some wagering value at home for the rest of conference play.
UT-San Antonio, C-USA: 8-0 vs. 1-11
Even though the level of competition that UTSA has played this year is low, the Jekyll and Hyde nature of their home and away performances can’t be missed. However, their ATS record is a middling 6-7, so who knows what the Road Runners will do on any given night from a wagering perspective. Best to play this team as a home/away system on the money line only.
William & Mary, Colonial: 8-0 vs. 2-9
The problem with William & Mary’s home wins is that they were early in the season in unlined games. Now that conference play has started, William & Mary is starting to show their true betting form, which is to fade the Tribe ATS against anyone ahead of them in the Colonial Athletic Conference.
Air Force, Mountain West: 10-3 vs. 0-6
The Falcons enjoy a home court advantage mainly due to altitude. It’s a variable that anyone as a sports bettor cannot ignore. Period.
Iowa, Big 10: 10-3 vs. 0-5
Iowa does not travel well, and not only are they 0-5 SU on the road, but 0-5 ATS as well. All of their wins except for a neutral court matchup against Northern Iowa have come at home, where they are 5-4 ATS. I’d stay away from them on their home court, but it looks like we can fade the Hawkeyes on the road at will.
Miami (OH), MAC: 9-3 vs 0-8
Miami is near the basement in MAC standings, but they’ve been profitable to sports bettors on a home/away system this year. All 9 of their wins have come at home where they are a strong 7-3 ATS. They are awful on the road but are often so big of an underdog that fading them on the money line is not an option. Their conference schedule sets up well for their upcoming home games, though, and I expect that their ATS winning trend there will continue against the likes of Kent St., Western Michigan, and Bowling Green.
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