Taking Advantage of Today’s Big Card for a Big ML Parlay

Rainman M.

Saturday, February 10, 2018 2:55 PM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 10, 2018 2:55 PM UTC

Our capper scanned today’s card for some winners. San Diego, Oregon State, Virginia and BYU promise to reward bettors with a SU win.

Free NCAAB Pick: San Diego ML, Oregon State ML, Virginia ML, BYU MLBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

San Diego (16-9) travels to Santa Clara (8-17) at 4 ET. The Toreros are favored by 4.5 points.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3342946, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,93,1275,180], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Santa Clara is enduring a rough patch, having lost five of its last six SU and its last three ATS. Part of the problem has been the foot injury of guard Matt Hauser, who was injured five games ago. He is listed as ‚questionable‘ for today’s game. The main problem has been a season-long one for the Broncos who are struggling to replace its star player from last year, Jared Brownridge, who averaged 18.1 points per game. Nate Kratch, who averaged over 40% from three, departed as well. KJ Feagin has also been failing to shoot as well since he assumed greater responsibility at point guard since Hauser transitioned to shooting guard.

Despite Santa Clara’s loss of personell, the Broncos are still very much a three-point shooting team. They attempt the 64th-highest proportion of threes and have the 41st-highest point distribution from three. This offensive focus is bad news against San Diego’s seventh-ranked perimeter defense that ranks third in opposing three-point percentage. When the teams first played, Santa Clara attempted only thirteen threes and made three of them. Expect San Diego to make Santa Clara once again uncomfortable on offense.

San Diego's offense likewise focuses on the three-ball and benefits from facing a Santa Clara defense that ranks 346th in opposing three-point percentage. The Toreros also boast strong options inside, led by big man Isaiah Pineiro who went 4-for-4 from two against Santa Clara in their first matchup. The Toreros’ defense also ranks 200 spots higher than Santa Clara’s in KenPom’s efficiency.

Oregon State (12-11) hosts Washington (17-7) at 10 ET. The Beavers are favored by 4 points.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3336960, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,93,1275,180], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Oregon State provides a tough match-up for Washington. The Huskies rely overwhelmingly on inside scoring. They have the 71st-highest point distribution from two. But they face a bigger Oregon State defense that ranks 10th in height and 52nd in opposing two point percentage. Washington ranks 103rd in two-point shooting percentage but has been consistently subpar inside in conference road games with the exception of Washington State, which has one of the worst interior defenses nationally. Conversely, Oregon State ranks 52nd in opposing two-point shooting percentage.

Besides match-up, form is an additional factor. Washington’s leader in shots taken, guard Jaylen Nowell, is struggling to the tune of 6-for-21 from two and 6 turnovers in his past two games. But Oregon State’s most important offensive contributors, power forward Tres Tinkle and point guard Stephen Thompson, have been red-hot, Thompson producing 40 points and Tinkle 39 points in the past two games. Both Tinkle and Thompson love to score inside and benefit from facing a Huskies defense that ranks 236th in opposing two-point percentage behind one of the worst half-court denses. Overall, Oregon State ranks 55th in two-point shooting percentage.

No. 2 Virginia (23-1) hosts Virginia Tech (17-7) at 6:15 ET. The Cavs are favored by 12 points.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3336942, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,93,1275,180], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

The Hokies showed how difficult life on offense is without elite playmaker Seth Allen when they mustered only 52 points in a blowout-loss at home vs Virginia. Virginia Tech loves to shoot the three, ranking 119th in proportion of threes attempted. But Virginia’s defense excels at contesting opposing three-point shots, ranking 5th in opposing three-point shooting percentage. The problem for Virginia Tech is that if they can’t get off good shots, they will end up with a lot of one-and-done possessions because they are an awful rebounding team. VT ranks 311th in offensive rebounding. Not just in rebounding, Virginia is more physical inside. VT is susceptible to being blocked on offense and UVA big men Isaiah Wilkins and Jack Salt both rank in the top 200 in block percentage.

While VT should struggle to score, the same can’t be predicted for Virginia. VT’s perimeter defense ranks 246th in terms of proportion of threes allowed. Virginia doesn’t score much because it plays at such a slow pace, but its offense is efficient. UVA ranks 29th in three-point shooting percentage. When guards like Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome get hot, it will be lights out for Virginia Tech. UVA has blown out VT at home every year since 2012 and bettors can expect the same today. Virginia is looking to win its 16th in a row after squeaking by a Florida State team that possesses the challenging length and stoutness inside that VT doesn’t.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": ""}[/]

BYU (19-7) hosts San Francisco (14-12) at 4 ET as 11 point favorites.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3342981, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,93,1275,180], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

The Dons are 0-5 SU as underdogs while the Cougars are 6-1 SU at home and 10-0 SU last ten against San Francisco. The Dons lack the quality to keep up with BYU. BYU owns the third-best defense in the WCC according to KenPom’s efficiency while San Fran ranks outside the top 200 in both two-point and three-point shooting percentage. BYU boasts two dominant forces inside in Elijah Bryant and Yoeli Childs, both of whom rank in the top 400 in two-point shooting percentage. SF allows the 95th-highest point distribution inside and is vulnerable to BYU’s interior offense. To make BYU also harder to defend, Bryant also shoots over 43% from three. BYU should have no problem achieving their second double-digit win against the Dons this season.

comment here