Take Valparaiso to Roll Over Ball State as Your NCAA Basketball Pick

Charles Stark

Saturday, November 28, 2015 5:12 PM GMT

Our NCAA Basketball capper takes a look at Valparaiso vs. Ball State fixture, as he will provide us with his NCAA Basketball pick, join us reading this article before you make a move on this game.

NCAA College Basketball Betting
NCAA basketball odds have come out making Valpo a solid -10.5 favorite like at Bookmaker. Although that seems like a big spread on a mid major road team against another mid major in Ball State that is 4-2 and has not lost by double digits, odds makers are spot on with this one. The Crusaders are simply the better team all the way around which makes them one of my selections today.

 

Valparaiso Crusaders
Valpo comes in averaging 69.8 points per game, shooting 43.1% from the field, and 32% from beyond the arc. Not fantastic numbers overall but they have played some pretty tough competition at Rhode Island (win), Oregon (close loss), and at Oregon State (win). Those three teams are expected to make the dance come March so going 2-1 in those matchups, all away games, says a lot about this Crusaders team. They return everybody from last year's team that went to the dance led by junior forward Alec Peters who is averaging 14.6 points per game. They are arguably the best mid major team in the country and should give Ball State a lot of trouble today.

Defensively Valpo is allowing 61.4 points per game, 38% shooting from the field, and 33.3% from beyond the arc. This is the guts of this team is that they get after you on the defensive end. From outside the perimeter to in the paint they are very tough defensively and allow just 40.1% in opponent two point shots per game which ranks 27th in the country. They are very deep and although Ball State is at home the Cardinals are going to have trouble consistently scoring against the Crusaders.

 

Ball State Cardinals
Offensively Ball State is averaging 71.4 points per game, shooting 42.6% for the field, and 33.7% from beyond the arc. Over the last two years Ball State is 4-32 in the MAC, and that is not a typo. This year things are expected to improve for them and they have started off the year well with their current 4-2 record. They have a bit of size and are surprisingly being led by senior Ryan Weber who got no preseason recognition whatsoever. Statistically they don't do anything particularly well on offense, and as mentioned even being the home team they will most likely struggle against a fundamentally sound Valpo defense.

Defensively Ball State is allowing 65.2 points per game, 40.1% shooting from the field, and 35.4% from beyond the arc. Their perimeter defense is nothing to shout about but they have done a decent job in limiting opponents total rebounds per game at just 32.2 per contest. Today though is a big step up in class for the Cardinals and I simply don't see them getting enough consistent stops against a deep and talented Valpo offense.

Valparaiso is no joke and Ball State will be a bit overmatched today. For one of your NCAA basketball picks I recommend laying the small double-digit spread with the Crusaders as I expect him to dominate this game. Don't let 4-2 record of Ball State fool you, Valpo is the much better team.

NCAA Basketball Pick: Valparaiso -9.5 at Bet365

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