Take St. Bonaventure ATS as Your NCAA Basketball Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, January 11, 2015 3:24 PM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Sunday.

 

Expect a highly competitive game in the Atlantic 10 Conference on Sunday, thus giving the underdogs value when those St. Bonaventure Bonnies (8-5, 3-2 away) pay a visit to the Richmond Spiders (8-7, 7-2 home) at the Robins Center in Richmond, VA at 3:00 ET.

The point spread at Bet365 has St. Bonaventure as a road underdog for this contest with the current line at +6 with odds of -110.


Great Shooting by Richmond Last Game
Some were surprised when Richmond was a decided favorite here at home vs. George Mason on Thursday when the Spiders were coming off of a three-game losing streak with two of those losses coming at home, but they hit six three-pointers in the first half while building a 19-point lead and finished 7-for-14, 50.0 percent beyond the arc, which was enough to offset George Mason’s huge 39-19 rebounding advantage in a 75-65 win. Richmond is now 1-1 in A-10 play.

St. Bonaventure is also 1-1 inside the Atlantic 10 after being the losing NCAA Basketball pick back home in Upstate New York 78-61 to Dayton on Thursday. That was vs. a Flyers’ team that is among the best in the conference and that is ranked 35th in the entire country overall on the Pomeroy Ratings though, and the Bonnies face no such foe here with Richmond ranked 110th.


Lack of Rebounding Hurts
Incredibly the Spiders defeated George Mason without grabbing a single offensive rebound the entire game, and rebounding has been an Achilles Heel for Richmond all year. The Spiders almost never get second chances as they are 338th in the country out of 351 Division I teams in offensive rebounding percentage at a miniscule 23.5 percent vs. a national average of 31.3 percent, and things are not any better on the other end as they are ranked 303rd in defensive rebounding percentage.

That means that Richmond needs to shoot a high percentage to win games, and they are in fact ranked 53rd nationally in effective rebounding percentage at 52.2 percent. However the three-point shooting Thursday was an anomaly as the Spiders are usually at their best closer to the basket ranking an excellent 18th in two-point shooting at 54.6 percent, but they are only 226th in three-point shooting.


Bonnies a Bad Matchup
That make St. Bonaventure a bad matchup for the Spiders as the Bonnies have a seven-foot monster at center in Youssou Ndoye, they rebound well and the play good interior defense. They are 51st in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.8 percent, 77th in defensive rebounding percentage and 41st in two-point defense allowing just a 42.8 percent success rate.

You may recall that the Atlantic 10 sent six teams to the NCAA Tournament last season but St. Bonaventure was not won of them. The Bonnies won 18 games but they went only 6-10 inside the conference. Well the Bonnies went 7-4 out of conference this season, so they now hope for an improved showing inside the A-10, one that could earn them a berth in the Big Dance.

And St. Bonaventure just may have the balance to pull it off as besides its rebounding and defensive qualities already discussed all five starters are averaging double-digit points, led by guard Marcus Posley and his 17.5 per game.


Trends Favor Visitors?
Finally take note that St. Bonaventure is one game over .500 straight up on the road at 3-2 while Richmond has lost two of its last three home games, and those patterns also hold true betting wise with the Bonnies going 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games and the Spiders going 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

Add this all up and St. Bonaventure appears to offer good value getting this many points in Richmond on Sunday.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: St. Bonaventure +6 (-110)