Take 'Over' With Your NCAA Basketball Picks As Michigan St. & Oakland Collide

Charles Stark

Tuesday, December 22, 2015 12:54 PM GMT

NCAA basketball odds makers have set this total really high, higher than these two teams have ever scored together on the court except for once in the last decade. Why is this our sharp pick?

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Over 152.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

NCAA Basketball Odds Overview
Odds makers have set this total at 152.5 -110 like at Bookmaker. Here's the interesting point about that number, in the last eight times these teams have met up, they have gone over this total just once. They have had some high-scoring games for sure, the highest total one time ending up at 153 for a final in 2010, however after that most of the games were in the 140's or lower. I think NCAA Basketball odds makers are on top of this, so for my NCAA college pick of the day, I'm going to back over the total when these two teams meet in Auburn Hills.

 

Oakland Grizzlies
Oakland is averaging 86.7 points per game while shooting 46.2% from the field, and allowing 76 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field. This is probably the best team Oakland has had in the last few years and they have been running at a really fast pace attempting 66 field goals per game, which ranks 11th in the country. Offensively they have also been converting these shot attempts averaging 30.5 made field goals per contest, which also ranks 11th in the country. Their scoring offense ranks fourth in the country, and even though they're facing a Michigan State team that is great on the defensive end, they know Michigan State very well. This is the point of contention in which I like is the fact that Oakland is very familiar with Michigan State and they have had some high-scoring affairs in the past. On the defensive side, Oakland has been decent in their percentages but more importantly for them is to continue to push an up-tempo pace. They rank as one of the worst teams in the country in shots allowed, including three-pointers, per game.

 

Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is averaging 79.7 points per game while shooting 49.1% from the field, and allowing 56.9 points per game on 35.3% shooting from the field. This is a legitimate final four team and have been getting it done on both ends of the floor so far this season. Offensively they are a different monster than we have seen in years past from Tom Izzo. They're putting up points at a tremendous rate and have been extremely efficient ranking 25th in the country in shooting efficiency and effective field-goal percentage. Tonight they should find little resistance against an Oakland team that will try to push the tempo as much as possible. On the defensive side they have been just as good if not better ranking fifth in the country and opponent shooting percentage and second in the country and opponent effective field-goal percentage. Their scoring defense also ranks third in the country and the most points they have allowed this year was 73 to a really good Kansas team. Even with those strong defensive stats, though, Oakland has faced them a lot this past decade so there will be no intimidation factor, look for the Grizzlies to score enough to help get is over the total and for Michigan State to score at will.

Again I have to come back to the number on this game. At 152.5 we are looking at a total, to reiterate, that these teams have only gone over once in the eight out of the last nine years they have been playing each other. I think it's time for that trend to break tonight in what should be a really fast-paced game. Although it seems really high, for one of your NCAA basketball picks, I recommend backing over the total in what should be one of the most entertaining games of the day.