Take Miami -1 at Florida State With Your NCAA Basketball Picks

Jason Lake

Saturday, February 13, 2016 10:32 PM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 13, 2016 10:32 PM UTC

They've got one of the biggest rivalries in college football, but the Miami Hurricanes are the easy basketball pick for Sunday's matchup with the Florida State Seminoles.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Miami -1 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Jason's 2015-16 record as of Feb. 12: 3-3 ATS, 1-1 Totals
The Miami Hurricanes and Florida State Seminoles have been going at each other's throats on the football field for almost 65 years. You don't hear nearly as much about their rivalry on the hardcourt – but Miami and Florida State are both competitive this year, especially the No. 12 Hurricanes. They'll meet this Sunday (6:30 p.m. ET) at the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, where the 'Canes are 1-point faves on the NCAA Basketball odds board at most online sportsbooks as we go to press.


As you can see, we're on Miami for this matchup, and it's not a difficult choice. This will be the third time we've faded the Seminoles (16-8 SU, 9-10-1 ATS) with our NCAA Basketball picks; we're 1-1 so far, thanks to a surprise 69-62 win over the Virginia Cavaliers (–3.5 away). That victory proved the 'Noles can hang with the best in the ACC. But Florida State is 4-3 SU and 2-4-1 ATS since pulling off the upset.

The Hurricanes (19-4 SU, 13-8-1 ATS) are on the other side of the coin. They suffered a somewhat embarrassing 76-65 loss to the Clemson Tigers (+4.5 at home) last month, but Miami has bounced back, going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS over the past five games. That includes satisfying wins at home over Duke (+4) and Notre Dame (+5).

Sunday's game will be a rematch of their first meeting back in January, when Miami trounced Florida State 72-59 as a 9-point home chalk. The 'Noles shot just 23-of-65 from the floor and 2-of-19 from behind the arc; Miami ranks No. 16 in Division I when it comes to 3-pointers allowed (130), thanks to a gifted backcourt anchored by senior guard Sheldon McClellan (23.8 PER, +10.8 BPM).


Tallahassee Nights
The advanced stats are in Miami's corner for the rematch in Tallahassee. Sports-Reference has the Hurricanes (20.5 SRS) pegged among the very best teams in the ACC using their Simple Rating System, while the Seminoles (13.0 SRS) are closer to the bottom of the pecking order than the top. Put those numbers together, and you get a kayfabe spread of around Miami –4.

Ken Pomeroy thinks a bit more highly of the 'Noles, but they still check in at No. 40 overall (No. 53 offense, No. 50 defense) on his efficiency charts, well below the 'Canes at No. 14 (No. 17 offense, No. 38 defense). Miami's also had a tougher strength of schedule thus far, and Florida State has been without back-up forward Phil Cofer (15.1 PER, +2.5 BPM) since January 4 because of an ankle injury. Again, not to dismiss what Florida State has achieved this year, but this is one of the easier picks we've made in a while. It's up to Miami from here.

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