Take Fired-Up Purdue As Our NCAA Basketball Pick Over Northwestern

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, February 16, 2016 12:14 PM UTC

Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2016 12:14 PM UTC

The Purdue Boilermakers welcome Northwestern to Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana on Tuesday evening for an interesting Big Ten Conference matchup. Let's review the NCAA basketball odds.

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Final Score Prediction: Purdue 75   Northwestern 59
NCAA Basketball Pick: Purdue -13
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker


Northwestern vs. Purdue
Northwestern (17-9, 5-8 Big Ten) heads to Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana on Tuesday night to play #17 Purdue (20-6, 8-5 Big Ten) in a Big Ten conference meeting probably a little more important to the Wildcats who are trying to make it to the Big Dance for the first time in school history. NCAA basketball odds makers have opened up this game with host Purdue as really big 12-point favorites (Bookmaker) with the Total (Points) for this game set at 134½ (Bookmaker).


Purdue Boilermakers
The Purdue Boilermakers (12-10-0 ATS, 7-4 ATS at Home) and Head Coach Matt Painter are still ranked in the AP Top 25 (#17) but where we keep score—Against the Point Spread (ATS)—this team is just 1-6 ATS their L7 and went from a sparkling 11-4 ATS (73.3%) for their betting backers to 12-10 ATS (54.5%), so any Purdue profits have evaporated as the Boilermakers ATS Record has regressed to the Mean. (Haven’t we all?) In their last game on Saturday, Purdue lost its 3rd straight ATS, falling to Michigan at Ann Arbor, 61-56, and losing outright as a 1-point favorite (Total 143½) as the Wolverines scored the game’s final 11 points. In the Loss, Purdue was led in scoring by F Caleb Swanigan (14 points) and C AJ Hammons (10 points) from the Starting 5 and C Isaac Haas (11 points) and the setback can pretty much be blamed on the Boilermakers horrific shooting from the Field (21-52, 29.6%). Purdue (40/1 to win National Championship, Ladbrokes) is healthy and will be glad to be facing Northwestern here at Home in West Lafayette after having to play on the Road in 4 of its L6 games and last year against the Wildcats here at Mackey Arena, the Boilermakers (77.6 AF-65.6 AA) were beaten outright as 9-point chalks by the Wildcats, 74-65 (122, Under), so expect former Purdue player Painter to have the Boilermakers really ready here, especially after losing up in Michigan over the weekend. Purdue has no reported Injuries heading into this contest.


Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern (10-12-1 ATS, 5-3 ATS Road) and 3rd-year Head Coach and Mike Krzyzewski protégé Chris Collins were in the midst of wonderful season and had dreams of making their first Men’s NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Tournament in school history dancing through their heads in December, but the rigors of Big Ten scheduling have dampened the Wildcats dreams quite a bit with Northwestern (72.2 AF-66.2 AA) now having L6 of its last 8 games SU. The Wildcats did win their last outing though, topping in-state rival Illinois, 58-56 in Evanston on Saturday as G Tre Demps (18 points) and C Alex Olah (10 points) were in double-digits from the Northwestern Starting 5 while G Scottie Lindsey (18 points) had the hot hand off the Wildcats Bench, going 6-for-10 on his FG Attempts (60%) and 4-for-7 on his 3’s. To shock Purdue (again this year) in West Lafayette, Northwestern (500/1 to win National Championship, Coral) will need big efforts from Demps (14.8 ppg), Olah, starting F Sanjay Lumpkin (5.4 rpg), G Bryant McIntosh (6.7 apg) as well as the Bench. On the Injury tip for Northwestern (0-6 SU vs. AP Top 25), F Vic Law (Shoulder) is Out for the season.


Recent Relevant Series Trends and Best Betting Approach
Purdue is an impressive 14-1 SU at Home—the one Loss was to peksy (now) #4 Iowa—and the Boilermakers are 6-4 SU L10 in this series which has seen the Over go 6-4 ATS but (the Under) just 1-3 ATS over the L4 meetings. Purdue is 3-1-1 ATS against Northwestern in the L4 games here in West Lafayette but last season, as mentioned above, the Boilermakers were upset as 9-point favorites by Northwestern, 74-65 (122, Under) and the hosts are really skidding, as mentioned (1-6 ATS L7). The Over is 6-2 ATS the L8 Northwestern games on the Road and the Wildcats are 4-4 SU away from Evanston so far this season and could really use a Road win and upset of a nationally ranked team to get their heads back where they were in December when dreams of making its Big Dance was a real thing for Northwestern (4-4 SU Away). And that’s a real possibility for the Wildcats (12-11 O/U) with this team sharp-shooting from 3-Point range and having W2 of the L3 meetings in this Big Ten Conference series.

The Boilermakers (10-12 O/U) are coming off a Loss and Purdue (#17 in the current Ken Pomeroy ratings) will remember last year’s game here at Mackey Arena where Northwestern (#91 in Ken Pomeroy ratings) knocked them off as big (9-point) underdogs. Expect Hammons (14.5 ppg), Swanigan (8.6 rpg), Edwards (10.2 ppg, 3.1 apg) and the Purdue Bench to find a way to control the Paint underneath as much as possible to get some easy buckets and to try to keep the Wildcats from getting hot from outside by staying close to Northwestern’s best 3-point shooters. With their only Losses to Butler, Iowa (twice), Illinois, Maryland and Michigan—and all but one one of them on the Road—Purdue has cut its teeth on some of the best teams in this rough-and-tumble Midwestern conference and will be looking for a little Revenge here. And with the Boilermakers coming off an “L,” the Wildcats find themselves in a tough scheduling spot and look destined to lose their 7th game in the L9. After a close 1st Half, Purdue should end up finding a way to win this much-needed Home game by between 10 to 20 points. Take Purdue as the NCAA basketball pick tonight.

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