Take Advantage On The Value On Arizona vs. Washington

Arizona Wildcats

Jason Lake

Saturday, February 18, 2017 5:23 PM GMT

The Arizona Wildcats may be one of the better teams in college hoops, but they still have value as a chalky NCAAB pick against the struggling Washington Huskies.

What’s this? The Arizona Wildcats are No. 5 in the college basketball standings? That doesn’t seem right. Sure, they’re on top of the Pacific-12 Conference standings at 24-3 SU overall (13-12-2 ATS), but the Pac-12 is hot garbage this year. Ken Pomeroy has the Wildcats ranked No. 21 overall according to his fancy stats, and the fine folks at Sports-Reference have them even further down the Division I pecking order at No. 24. So there.

But what if we told you that Arizona was still a value NCAAB pick for Saturday’s game (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2) in Seattle versus the Washington Huskies? That’s the way it looks here at the home office. The ‘Cats are 10.5-point road faves on the college basketball odds board as we go to press, down from –11 at the open. Maybe those odds should be moving in the other direction.
 

From Husky to Slim

Arizona may be overvalued in general, but there’s something especially bad about the Huskies (9-17 SU, 7-17-1 ATS) this year. They’re the least profitable team in Division I, ignoring all those low-low-major teams at 0-1 ATS thus far. Pomeroy has the Huskies ranked No. 164 overall, with the No. 252-ranked defense in the nation. Sports-Reference is a bit more forgiving at No. 122 overall.

What can we say: It’s a rebuilding year in Seattle. The Huskies lost forward Marquese Chriss (+5.9 BPM) and guard Dejounte Murray (+4.3 BPM) to the NBA Draft, and their best player from last year, guard Andrew Andrews (+8.9 BPM), is off playing basketball in Turkey after graduating from college. That’s a lot of talent to replace.
 

Did not realize Space Jam 2 already came out. We're at the part where the Washington Huskies get their basketball skills back.

— Kevin Zimmerman (@KZimmermanAZ) January 26, 2017


Now let’s do some math. Pomeroy has Arizona at +21.87 in Adjusted efficiency margin (AdjEM), or 21.87 points per 100 possessions better than the average D-I team. Washington checks in at +0.02. These teams will get in about 75 possessions on Saturday, barring overtime, so three-fourths of 21.85 is... let’s see, carry the one... almost 16.5 points. Give the Huskies 3.5 points for home-court, and you still have Arizona projected to win by 13 points. Bet accordingly, my friends, and may the sphere be with you.

Free NCAAB Pick: Arizona –10.5Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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