Sweet 16's West Matchups Feature Contrasting Plays vs. Totals

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Willie Bee

Wednesday, March 21, 2018 4:16 PM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 21, 2018 4:16 PM UTC

We're talking NCAAB totals for the Sweet 16 matchups out West, where the Texas A&M-Michigan and Florida State-Gonzaga games are likely to have opposite results.

NCAA Tournament: Region Semifinals Bets O/U Bets

Totals ran 21-27 O/U in the first 48 contests leading to this week’s regional action, the "under" cashing 19 of the 32 games in Round 1 before results leveled out to 8-8 O/U in the second round. The scoreboard marks in those 48 matchups ranged from 127 to 165, and the top sportsbooks have tightened those numbers for the Sweet 16 (133½-153½). Let's look at a couple of West Region games at or near those extremes.

No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 3 MichiganFree NCAAB Pick: Over 136Best Line Offered: Intertops

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Third-seeded Michigan (30-7 SU, 23-13 ATS) is favored by 2½-3 points in Thursday night's contest, with the total at 136 on the college basketball odds board.

Texas A&M (22-12 SU, 15-16 ATS) is coming off an impressive 21-point win over defending champ North Carolina, the 86-65 final just scraping "under" a 151½-point scoreboard target. The Tar Heels were ice cold on offense, hitting just 26 of their 78 field-goal attempts and going 6-of-31 from beyond the arc. Where A&M’s defense really dominated was on the glass (43-27), and the Aggies allowed UNC and Providence just 14 offensive rebounds combined in the first two games.

Both of Michigan’s wins last week stayed "under" totals, a 61-47 triumph vs. Montana and 64-63 buzzer-beater against Houston. The Wolverines can’t match Texas A&M’s bigs – few teams can – but they have an advantage on the perimeter and can open up the paint a little by pulling 6-foot-11 Moritz Wagner out where he can give either Robert Williams or Tyler Davis matchup fits. I don’t expect the Aggies to shoot as well as they did against North Carolina, but I do expect Michigan to shoot better than UNC, and will play the "over" with my NCAAB picks.

No. 9 Florida State vs. No. 4 GonzagaFree NCAAB Pick: Under 153Best Line Offered: Intertops

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Fourth-seeded Gonzaga (32-4 SU, 16-17 ATS) will try and keep its run toward a second straight Final Four going against ninth-seeded Florida State (22-11 SU, 17-14 ATS) in Thursday's late game. The college basketball odds board favors the Bulldogs by 5½, with the total dropping a point from the opener to 153.

Gonzaga was a bit off on the offensive end in its opener against UNC-Greensboro, but came back strong in a 90-84 decision vs. Ohio State. Florida State is fresh off a huge upset of top-seeded Xavier after beating Missouri in the first round.

Both Seminoles games stayed "under" and Gonzaga’s opener also fell short, and with my NCAAB picks that’s how I see this one going as well.

Check out SBR’s college basketball odds page for updated lines. Also, head over to the March Madness Betting Headquarters for vital handicapping information, picks, and a list of the best sports books and live betting options for the tournament season.

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