Struggling Hurricanes Still Worth Wager at Notre Dame

notre dame miami

Swinging Johnson

Monday, February 19, 2018 12:34 PM UTC

Monday, Feb. 19, 2018 12:34 PM UTC

The Miami Hurricanes limp into South Bend after dropping their last three games, while the Fighting Irish have won and covered the NCAAB odds in three of their last four contests. Let's analyze Monday's ACC matchup and get on the right side.

Miami (18-8 SU, 8-12 ATS) at Notre Dame (16-11 SU, 10-12 ATS)Free College Basketball Pick: Miami +4½Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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  • Notre Dame is 0-4 ATS in their last four Monday games.
  • Notre Dame is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.
  • Notre Dame is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
  • Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings at Notre Dame.
  • Miami is 24-14 ATS over their last 38 road games where the total is 135 to 139.5.
  • Miami is 6-4 ATS in road games this season.

The average bettor will look at this game and see a Hurricanes team that has dropped their last three, and more important failed to cover the NCAA basketball odds in each and every one of those losses. Conversely, they will also view an Irish team that has rattled off three wins in its past four and covers three covers as well vs. Boston College, Florida State, and Boston College again. Wedged in between was a blowout loss to No. 14 North Carolina in Chapel Hill. The choice seems clear: Bet the team that has been playing well and fade the team that hasn't. Not often do we get the best of both worlds in one game but in this matchup, that's what we have.

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Got that work in.

— Canes Hoops (@CanesHoops) February 19, 2018

However, the uninitiated might find that Notre Dame -4.5 looks like a steal to bet the home chalk, but if you've been around the block and peel a few more layers off the onion you will identify value on the other side. You see, games between conference rivals are often more hotly contested than out-of-conference affairs. And despite the fact that the visitors have been struggling while the home team has been flourishing over the last few weeks, we see this as an opportunity for the Canes to shake off the funk and get back on track.

The major difference between Miami and Notre Dame's recently vanquished ACC foes BC and Florida State is defense. The Hurricanes have a strong defense, while the Eagles and Seminoles do not. Miami ranks 39th in the nation in points allowed, surrendering just 66.1 per game and scores about two points per game less than Notre Dame. In addition, the Hurricanes have gone 4-1 ATS over their last five visits to South Bend. Miami is simply too talented to keep losing and will offer a far more daunting defense than the ole' defenses Notre Dame has faced recently.

These two conference rivals are fairly close in terms of talent, and the line is a bit inflated due to the anticipated square action that will be wagered on the Fighting Irish. Don't be square -- be sharp -- and back the Hurricanes in your college basketball picks on Monday night!

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