Strong Home Court Advantage Makes Iowa St. Our NCAA Basketball Pick Over Oklahoma

Charles Stark

Monday, January 18, 2016 12:54 PM GMT

For Monday college basketball, we head back to the Big 12 where Oklahoma visits Iowa State. Let's analyze this interesting matchup and come up with our NCAA basketball picks.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Iowa State -1.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

NCAA Basketball Odds Overview
NCAA basketball odds boards have Iowa State as a -1.5 favorite at home like at Bookmaker -115. Some places have them at -2, but of course, if you can get them at a smaller number, that is the way to go. For my NCAA basketball pick, I will take Iowa State minus the 1.5 because of their strong home-court advantage, the way they matchup with Oklahoma, and the fact they are well coached basketball team.

 

Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma is averaging 86.2 points per game while shooting 47.1% from the field, and allowing 70.9 points per game on 38.6% shooting from the field. Against the spread, they are right at 50% with a 7-7 record on the year, but they are 4-3 on the road. This is a really good basketball team led by leading scorer Buddy Hield, arguably the best player in the big 12, and offensively, they are really hard to stop with all of their weapons. They are shooting 45% from beyond the arc which ranks second in the country, as they average 23.2 attempts from distance, making 10.4 per game which ranks seventh. They rank in the top 20 in shooting efficiency and effective field-goal percentage, and they rebound as well as anybody averaging 43.6 boards per game which ranks third in the country. Defensively, they have been good overall statistically, but they do allow opponents to get up and down the floor allowing 68 opponent field-goal attempts per game which ranks just about dead last in NCAA college basketball. Besides that, they rank 15th in opponent shooting percentage, and only allow 30.6% from beyond the arc. Although they do play a solid statistical defense and are really athletic, I think tonight their pace might come back to haunt them because Iowa State is also extremely efficient, especially at home, with the ability to put up a lot of points.

 

Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State is averaging 85.2 points per game while shooting 50.3% from the field, and allowing 74.3 points per game on 43% shooting from the field. Although there only 2-3-1 at home against the spread and it seems like they have had a tough go of it so far this season, that is not really the case. They have lost only four games this season, two of them on the road, by a total of 14 points, so all is not lost in my opinion for the Cyclones. Head Coach Steve Prohm should have this team going in the right direction because he is a very good basketball coach and this squad is talented. Offensively, like Oklahoma, they are very hard to stop and rank first in the country in field goals made per game at 32.9 per contest. They also rank sixth in the country in shooting percentage from the field, and fifth at 57.9% on their two-point shots. The big issue for them has been defensively, where they have allowed that 43% from the field, but that does drop to around 41% at home. On this side of the ball, they are still a work in progress, but last time they faced Oklahoma, although a loss, they held them to some decent numbers percentagewise. Expect them to put up one of their better efforts this season at home defensively.

This looks to be another high-scoring affair with most likely several lead changes throughout. For my NCAA basketball picks, I like Iowa State in this spot to pull the minor upset minus the points against an Oklahoma team that is very talented. I expect the Cyclones to play their best game of the year and pull away at the end to win by more than five.