Stony Brook is the NCAA Basketball Pick at Washington

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, December 28, 2014 3:30 PM UTC

Sunday, Dec. 28, 2014 3:30 PM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Sunday.


The undefeated nationally ranked team may have a tough time covering the large spread Sunday night when the Stony Brook Seawolves (7-6, 0-6 away) pay a visit to those undefeated Washington Huskies (11-0, 5-0 home) at Alaska Airlines Arena in Seattle, WA at 8:00 ET in a game available on the Pac-12 Network.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Stony Brook as a big underdog for this contest with the current line at +13½ with odds of +100.

13th in AP, 35th on Pomeroy
The Huskies are ranked 13th on the AP poll with a chance to move up further when the new poll comes out Monday as they added wins over Oklahoma and Tulane in the past week to improve to 11-0, although Washington is not quite feeling the same love on the Pomeroy Ratings ranking 35th overall despite the unblemished mark, no doubt hurt be a schedule ranked 321st in the country in SOS.

The first thing that sticks out about Stony Brook is that it is a perfect 7-0 at home and an “imperfect” 0-6 on the road, but the Seawolves have faced a nice 69th ranked SOS and they did take Canisius to overtime in a one-point loss the last time they were on the road before being the winning NCAA Basketball picks at home over Loyola-Maryland and American the last two games. Stony Brook is not usually a lined team but it is 2-0 ATS when on the board so far.

Means More to Seawolves
Stony Brook was the preseason favorite to win the American East Conference after going 13-3 in league play last season but losing to Albany in the championship game of the American East Tournament, allowing the Great Dames to get the automatic NCAA Tournament berth with the Seawolves settling for a CBI bid where they lost at Siena, which went on to win that tournament, in the first round.

Still, the Seawolves would like to have one statement win on their resume before its American East opener vs. New Hampshire this coming Saturday and this is the last chance for that after losing to three other Pomeroy Top 100 teams previously at Georgia, Cincinnati and Providence, so expect an all-out effort. And remember that Stony Brook is an excellent rebounding team that can excel in that department even vs. this Pac-12 opponent.

That is because the Seawolves are a sparkling 11th in the entire country in offensive rebounding percentage at 40.1 percent vs. a national average of 31.4 percent and Washington is a poor 234th in defensive rebounding percentage. Not only should that lead to more put-back points for Stony but it should also lead to extended possessions, as that offensive rebounding prowess is a reason why the Seawolves grade out just 215th in adjusted tempo rating at 65.3 possessions per game.

That is a nice trail in a decided underdog like this and the Seawolves’ rebounding success is not confined to the offensive end either as they are also 24th in defensive rebounding percentage, leading to a nice rebounding margin of +7.9 boards per game, which ranks 25th in the land. Conversely, Washington is 80th in that category.

Tough Scheduling Spot?
Washington is now the final remaining undefeated team in the Pac-12 thanks to currently third ranked Arizona getting upset at UNLV on Tuesday, but this is not the best of scheduling spots for the Huskies. You see, this seemingly “easy” game comes after having five days off since beating Tulane and Washington has its conference opener at California up next on Friday.

And the Huskies are not a team without flaws even when fully focused despite the 11-0 mark, as besides the aforementioned difficulties on the defensive glass they also do not apply much pressure defensively ranking just 271st on defensive turnover percentage at 18.0 percent vs. a national average of 20.0 percent. That should make Stony Brook feel rather comfortable while the Seawolves try to play their preferred slow-down game.

Poor Free Throw Shooting
Finally, Washington is a poor free throw shooting team at 64.2 percent to rank only 285th nationally, and that is not what you want in a double-digit favorite as the Huskies may have trouble extending a lead late in the game.

Add this all up and Stony Brook appears to offer nice value getting this many points at Washington on Sunday.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Stony Brook +13½ (+100)

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