Sports Picks: Odds Movement & Top Trends for Sunday

Doug Upstone

Sunday, March 22, 2015 7:29 PM UTC

Sunday, Mar. 22, 2015 7:29 PM UTC

We take one step close to the Sweet 16 today and those placing sports have singled out four contests in particular they think the betting odds will end up in their favor against the sportsbooks.

Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (439-397 L157D)


NCAA Basketball – (725) SAN DIEGO STATE vs. (726) DUKE 2:40 ET  CBS
We have witnessed a number of “grind it out” contests already in the NCAA Tournament and those making college basketball picks are forecasting another in Game 2 on Sunday. The total of 129 is the second-lowest in which Duke will play this season, with the Virginia matchup closing at 126. Hoops bettors are forecasting this will help San Diego State and lowered them from +10 to +8.5. This is how the Aztecs are more comfortable playing and they are 7-0 ATS when playing their second game in three days since last season. I don’t see much value in San Diego State at this number and would probably give the points.

NCAA Tournament Pick – Slight lean Duke


NCAA Basketball – (731) WICHITA STATE vs. (732) KANSAS  5:15 ET  CBS  (side and total)
Kansas opened as two-point favorite and had been sent to a Pick and the total is up three digits to 133.5. The uncertainty about the Jayhawks has been their season-long performance. While to safe assume Wichita State will be jazzed to finally get a shot at in-state partner Kansas, Bill Self’s guys will be out to prove they are the best program in the state. However, the Shockers do have the better backcourt and as long they hold their own in the frontcourt, they can win this contest. As a college basketball handicapper, the total heading north sounds like the right choice as both teams will want to push the ball the entire game leading to more shot attempts and presumably more buckets.

NCAA Tournament Pick –Wichita State covers and Over


NCAA Basketball  – (733) OREGON vs. (734) WISCONSIN  7:45 ET  TruTv
Because of Oregon’s lack of size, they cannot play in a possession by possession contest with Wisconsin and they have to quicken the pace to beat them down the floor before their defense sets up. On defense, the Dana Altman’s crew has to create chaos because if they let the Badgers just run their offense, the Ducks will be swallowed whole like those giant alligators to do smaller animals. Based on these factors, the college basketball odds on this Pac-12 vs. Big Ten tilt have leaped from 140 to 143. On the surface this makes sense, but a general trend in this tourney and those before it, finds totals this year are 8-2-1 UNDER when they are in the 140’s.

NCAA Tournament Pick – Play Under at 5Dimes


NCAA Basketball – (735) IOWA vs. (736) GONZAGA  7:10 ET  TBS
The total of 136.5 did not stand up, as these typically fast-paced teams are expected to be motoring up and down all 94 feet. The adjusted figure is 138.5 and Gonzaga averages 79.2 points a game and will look to place the pressure on the Iowa defense. Gonzaga is 10-2 OVER in any tournament conflict the past two years. The Hawkeyes coaches know they cannot get into a shootout with the Bulldogs and have to control the tempo and they are 7-1 UNDER off one or more victories.

NCAA Tournament Pick – Lean Under


Sportsbook Review Tasty Trends

NBA ATS Trend: Denver is 5-18 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more this season. 

CBB ATS Trend: Northern Iowa is 10-1 ATS in away contests after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. 

NHL Money Line Trend: Arizona is 3-21 as a home underdog this season. (Same as yesterday, don’t need to reinvent the wheel with these NHL picks)

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