Some Home Cooking And a Hot Team For Our Saturday ML Parlay

Rainman M.

Saturday, January 20, 2018 3:51 PM UTC

Saturday, Jan. 20, 2018 3:51 PM UTC

Get some bang for your buck with a three-team ML Parlay. Ohio State, West Virginia and Colorado promise a full day's worth of profitable action.

 

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Ohio State Buckeyes

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The Big Ten leaders Ohio State (16-4) play Minnesota (14-7) at noon ET in the Madison Square Garden. The Buckeyes are favored by 9 points in the NCAAB Odds board.

Ohio State is in great form and showing so signs of slowing down. They've won and covered their first five conference games. They also have a strong history against Minnesota, going 8-2 SU and ATS in their last ten games against them. Being away from home should be no problem for OSU. They are 4-2 SU on the road despite facing some top-notch competition. Minnesota has been far from top-notch, going 1-4 SU to start conference play.

The match-up speaks for a continuation of OSU's success. Ohio State relies on the 72nd-highest distribution of points inside the arc. Small forward Jae'Sean Tate and power forward Keita Bates-Diop rank in the top 300 in two-point completion percentage. Their offensive success is impressive considering that they have faced the 30th-toughest schedule in terms of defensive quality, ranking 95 spots higher than Minnesota.

Minnesota lacks the tools inside to keep up with Ohio State. The Buckeyes play a stout interior defense, ranking 47th in two-point completion allowed. They like to leave the perimeter relatively open, challenging teams to beat them from behind the arc. Minnesota prefers to score inside, ranking 94th in point distribution from two, but will struggle to do so against OSU. Problematically, the Gophers are nothing special from three and barely like to rely on scoring from far away.

The Buckeyes are the hotter team. They are historically more successful in this match-up. And the match-up suggests that they will be able to play more effectively to their strengths.

Texas Longhorns vs West Virginia Mountaineers

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No. 6 West Virginia (15-3) hosts Texas (12-6) at 2 ET. The Mountaineers are favored by 8 points.

West Virginia will play angry after losing two consecutive games--both to top-ten teams. In its last game, WVU lost a big lead at home. Morgantown is a notoriously difficult place to play. Texas, which is 4-16 SU in its last 20 road games, doesn't look like a promising road warrior. Bob Huggins' West Virginia hasn't lost consecutive home games since 2014 and will be extra determined to hold onto its lead.

The match-up suggests that WVU will bounce back. 'Press' Virginia is known for forcing turnovers due to the extremely difficult pressure that it applies to opposing offenses. WVU ranks second in percentage of turnovers forced. WVU is a tall task for Texas' freshman point guard Matt Coleman. He already struggles with ball security, averaging 2.2 turnovers per game, and West Virginia presents a whole new kind of beast for him. Texas, partly due to Coleman, ranks outside the top 100 in percentage of turnovers allowed.

Texas likes to rely on its big men to score. It has the 64th-highest point distribution from inside the arc. It will struggle to score against WVU's top-notch interior defense that ranks 26th in two-point completion percentage allowed. Center Sagabe Konate ranks 4th in block percentage and leads the team with 3.1 blocks per game.

So not only will Texas struggle to create plays with its turnover-prone freshman point guard going against WVU's high-pressure defense, but its big men will struggle against WVU's interior defense, led by Konate. Finally, WVU is in a major bounce-back spot after losing its last home game.

Washington Huskies vs Colorado Buffaloes

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Colorado (12-7) hosts Washington (13-6) at 6 PM ET to round out our parlay. The Buffaloes are favored by 4.5 points.

Colorado's 12-7 record doesn't seem too appealing. But it is a much better team at home, where it is 10-1 SU and has achieved wins against the likes of Arizona State and Arizona. Conversely, Washington is in a difficult spot. It is 4-21 SU in its last 25 road games, including 1-4 SU at Colorado.

In comparing the strength of schedule that each team's respective offense and defense has encountered, Colorado's offense has faced a much more difficult test than Washington's defense. Defensively, Washington's interior defense is struggling, ranking 228th in opposing two-point completion percentage.

Colorado boasts a few different players who can take over the game inside. Freshman point guard McKinley Wright is making an immediate impact as a playmaker. He ranks 38th in assist rate. In his three conference home games thus far, he is also scoring effectively. He is averaging over 17 points per conference home game and completing over 60% inside the arc. Power forward George King is also doing the most to make Colorado dangerous outside the arc. In his last three games, he is averaging 21 points and completing 49% from three.

Washington lacks the tools to keep up. The Huskies prefer to score inside, but will run into a Colorado defense that likes to challenge its opponents to shoot from three. The Huskies have the 68th-highest point distribution from two, while Colorado allows the 247th-lowest point distribution from inside the arc. Colorado's interior defense can neutralize Washington's interior strength while also achieving an edge in rebounding. The Buffs rank 55th in defensive rebounding percentage, the Huskies 335th. The Huskies were out-rebounded decisively in their past two games, both losses by 8 or 9 points, against teams not known for their rebounding. The Buffs' rebounding superiority can be similarly decisive.

Free NCAAB Pick: Ohio State-West Virginia-Colorado MLBest Line Offered: at Heritage
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