SMU Cashing ATS Tickets... But So Is Tulsa

Jason Lake

Thursday, March 2, 2017 3:24 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 2, 2017 3:24 PM UTC

They’ve both been profitable this year, but few teams have beaten up the NCAAB odds like the SMU Mustangs. Can the Tulsa Golden Hurricane spoil SMU’s parade this Thursday?

Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs SMU Mustangs  

Do you like money? Then you must be a big fan of the SMU Mustangs. At press time, the No. 14 Mustangs are one of the Top-3 most profitable college basketball picks in Division I, at 25-4 SU and a mouth-watering 18-5-1 ATS. Looks like the betting market overcompensated when head coach Larry Brown retired during the offseason; SMU is doing just fine with Tim Jankovich at the controls.

There aren’t many other profitable teams in the American Athletic Conference, not with the Mustangs taking all that money off the table. The Tulsa Golden Hurricane (14-14 SU, 15-12 ATS) are actually No. 2 in the AAC when it comes to the spread, and they’re getting a metric ton of points for Thursday’s game (8:00 p.m ET, CBSSN) against SMU. At press time, Tulsa is a 16.5-point road dog on the NCAAB odds board, down from +19 at the open.

Like a Hurricane

Looks like the sharps got their money in good. Checking in with Ken Pomeroy’s advanced stats, we find the Mustangs at No. 16 overall with an Adjusted efficiency margin of +23.88 per 100 possessions. Tulsa is in another time zone at No. 128 overall and +2.60 AdjEM. That’s a difference of... let’s see, carry the one... about 21 points.

But how many possessions will they get on Thursday night? The Hurricane aren’t as quick as their name would suggest, getting in around 70 touches per game, and the Mustangs are slower than molasses in 65 possessions. For simplicity, let’s give them two-thirds of 100 possessions in this matchup, which leads to a projected 14-point win for SMU. That suggests there’s still some betting value on Tulsa.

Then again, SMU wiped the floor with the Hurricane the last time they met. It was February 4 at the Donald Reynolds Center, and the Mustangs thumped Tulsa 76-53 as 9-point road faves. You might want to exercise some bankroll discipline with this matchup, but we’re still okay with recommending Tulsa here at the ranch.

Free NCAAB Pick: Tulsa +16.5 Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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