Saturday's Hottest Sports Picks & Tasty Trends Based on Odds Movements

Doug Upstone

Saturday, March 21, 2015 4:07 PM GMT

With the high entertainment value of the NCAA Tournament, thought we would add a Saturday edition of the latest line moves and see what the public is thinking versus the betting odds.

Here is a look at the four biggest changes against the NCAA Tournament odds along with a single NBA contest. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (439-392 L156D)

 

Georgia State vs. Xavier 6:10 ET  TNT
Everyone can see how much coach Ron Hunter is enjoying himself on the biggest stage and if Georgia State keeps winning, he might be in a full body cast by the Final Four. Thus far in the tournament UNDER’s are 19-16-1 and the sportsbooks original number of 134 has been sent packing to 131. Recent games for Georgia State have them at 4-1 UNDER and Xavier is on a 4-0 UNDER run and is 9-2 UNDER since Feb.20th. The public seems to be taking this in the proper direction and we will back them up with our NCAA tournament picks.

NCAA Tournament Pick –  Play Under

 

Butler vs. Notre Dame  9:40 ET  TBS
The last contest on the Saturday docket features two squads from the Hoosier State. This matchup offers an interesting contrast on one end of the floor where Butler is a stingy defensive team and Notre Dame is as efficient as they come on offense. Generally speaking, in these scenarios the defensive-minded team is able to slow the tempo and those forecasting college basketball picks are in agreement and have lowered the Bulldogs from +5 to -3.5. What I wonder about is the Fighting Irish guards creating turnovers, since if they do; they are very effective in turning those into points going the other way. Also, if you breakdown Butler’s defeats, versatile offenses have been bothersome to them and Mike Brey’s club sure matches that criterion.

NCAA Tournament Pick –  Notre Dame covers

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Cincinnati vs. Kentucky 2:40 ET  CBS  (side and total)
Thus far in the tournament favorites of eight or more points are just 4-12 ATS. Despite the excellence of No. 1 Kentucky, those placing sports picks have found -17 too much luggage and lined up with Cincinnati and has sent the Wildcats plunging to -15.5. Also, as college basketball handicappers are aware, this season when John Calipari’s troops are favored by 15 or more, they are a mere 11-10 ATS. This makes all the sense in the world, I just have one nagging caveat, the Bearcats turn the ball over at a high rate per possessions and with how Kentucky can run of miscues, does this put them over the top to cover? A Bearcats cover does not align with a higher score it would seem, yet the total has been pushed three points to 121.5. In the last several tournaments betting Under on total of 125 or lower has been a winning ticket, but thus far after four days, this scenario is 5-2 OVER.

NCAA Tournament Pick – Lean Kentucky and Over

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Chicago Bulls vs. Detroit Pistons 7:35 ET  WGN, FS-D
The Bulls have Taj Gibson back from injury and couple with the outstanding play of rookie Nikola Mirotic, Chicago is showing signs of overcoming their various maladies. Mirotic is averaging 21.5 points in 11 games this month and the money is on the Bulls, up two points to -3.5 at Detroit.  The Pistons are back to being the Pistons and they cannot blame Josh Smith this time around having lost 10 of 11 (5-6 ATS), so we're backing the Bulls with our NBA Picks

NBA Pick – Lean Chicago

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Sportsbook Review Tasty Trends

NBA ATS Trend
Golden State is 31-13 ATS at home after covering two of their last three against the spread the last three seasons. 

CBB ATS Trend
Villanova is 10-0 ATS after two or more consecutive Under’s this season. 

NHL Money Line Trend
Arizona is 3-20 as a home underdog this season.