Robert Morris vs. Duke Free NCAA Tournament Pick

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, March 19, 2015 1:45 PM GMT

We’re going to examine Friday’s second round game in the NCAA Tournament between Robert Morris and Duke. Read our insightful article that looks inside the numbers in our daily search for betting value. 

David versus Goliath on Friday in Charlotte
The #1 seed Duke Blue Devils (29-4) take on the #16 seed Robert Morris Colonials (20-14) in the NCAA Tournament on Friday at 7:10 PM ET. This is a second round game in the South Regional at the Time Warner Cable Arena in Charlotte, North Carolina.  At the time of this writing, none of the major sportsbooks had posted a point-spread or total on this contest. My power index ratings indicate that Duke should be approximately a 20.0 point NCAA Basketball odds favorite. After crunching the numbers, I estimate the total to be somewhere around 142.0.

 

Living on Borrowed Time
The Robert Morris Colonials were able to knock off North Florida 81-77 on Wednesday in a first round game in Dayton, Ohio. Their reward is to play one of the most iconic college basketball programs (Duke) in their own backyard. This comes on the heels of being a somewhat surprise winner of the Northeast Conference Tournament. Saying this is a monumental task for the Colonials is a vast understatement, especially considering that a #16 seed has never defeated a #1 seed in the history of the tournament. On a positive note, Robert Morris enters Friday’s game on a seven game winning streak for what it’s worth. Putting the Colonials chances into perspective, they lost at North Carolina earlier in the year by a lopsided score of 103-59, and Duke won both games played against the Tar Heels this season.

 

The only Team that can beat Duke on Friday is Duke
Short of Duke having a complete meltdown, they will advance to the third round on Sunday against the winner of St. John’s/San Diego State game. The question then becomes, can they cover the huge number they’ll be asked to lay?

 

Final Analysis
I’m usually never a proponent of laying a large number such as this, nor am I an advocate for wagering on an underdog that has nothing less than an astronomical chance of winning. That leaves me to focus on the total. Duke is averaging a robust 80.6 points per game, and my guess is that number will improve versus a vastly inferior opponent. The Colonials average nearly 70-points per contest, and are a pretty good three point shooting team at 37.7%. I’m going to have a very small lean on going over the total for one of my NCAA Tournament picks on Friday.

Free NCAA Tournament Pick: Play on Robert Morris and Duke to go Over the total at Pinnacle