Road Dog Washington Is Our NCAA Basketball Pick To Take Down UCLA

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, January 28, 2016 3:39 PM GMT

The Washington Huskies travel to Westwood, CA to face the UCLA Bruins at fabled Pauley Pavilion and we are ready to break down the odds to find out the sharp NCAA basketball pick.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Washington +234
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Washington vs. UCLA (-6-) 10:00 ET FOX TV
Today, the Bruins look for a measure of revenge on a home court, where they are 55-9 SU (including 9-2 SU this season). As well as playing with same season revenge and on their strong home court, they will be playing this game following a previous home loss (by a score of 89-75 to USC on January 13th). That should provide plenty of incentive for a UCLA team, who trails Washington by 2 games in the conference standings. The flip side of that coin is that Washington is a qualified BERD (Better Record Dog). For the Huskies are 13-6 SU overall and 5-2 SU ATS in the league, while UCLA is 12-8 SU overall and 3-4 SU ATS in the league. There are no fewer than 7 BERDs on today’s card, as Washington is joined on the list by Notre Dame, Mid-Tennessee St., Iowa, S. Illinois, San Francisco and Oregon as teams who have, either or both, the superior record for the YTD or in conference play, yet are made an underdog in today’s matchup.

It has been a bit of an underachieving season for the UCLA Bruins under 3rd year HC Steve Alford, who entered the year as one of the most profitable CBKB home coaches on the planet with a 156-108 ATS record, including 42-30 ATS in his 2 years at UCLA. But the bottom has fallen out for the Bruins with a 7-13 ATS mark, including just 3-6 ATS as home chalk, a role in which Alford entered the season at 72-45 ATS, including 21-10 ATS as head man of the Bruins.

The Washington Huskies are a young team with 4 frosh in the starting lineup (plus senior lead guard, Andrew Andrews), who have outperformed expectations, even on the road. In PAC 12 road games, the Huskies are 2-1 SU ATS. They enter following a home loss by 5 points to a Utah team, who is hard-charging down the stretch. Washington has the propensity to play their conference games close to the vest, as 5 of their 7 contests in league play have been decided by 5 or less points. 

 

Betting Analysis
To approximate the result of a game, you can add up each team’s rebounds, assists and TOs. The difference of the sum of those numbers for each team will closely approximate the final score of the game. In our case tonight, UCLA enters with a +3.3 net advantage in games for the season over that of Washington. This makes sense, considering that Washington has the better record by 2 games in the conference and 2 less losses for the season. In a game that has PERCEPTION (of UCLA Bruins and Pauley Pavilion) written all over it, I invite you to put the NCAA basketball odds in your favor and join me in my NCAA basketball pick on the Washington Huskies in one of Thursday's night games.