Road Dog UCF Is Our NCAA Basketball Pick When Visiting Tulane

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, February 4, 2016 3:14 PM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 4, 2016 3:14 PM UTC

Tonight, the UFC Knights travel to meet the Tulane Green Wave in an AAC contest. Don't miss our betting preview and get Gavazzi's NCAA basketball picks for the matchup.


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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: UCF +3
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


Central Florida vs. Tulane (-2-) 8:00 ET
At the beginning of the week, I authored a pair of articles that I have used as a theme for our video reports this week. One article dealt with undefeated homers and winless road teams. The second article was about a group which I called “towel tossers.” These are the cellar dwellers of the conference, the teams who have already given up on a winning season or hopes of post-season play. They are ideal PLAY AGAINST candidates. The latter is the topic for this game selection.

Tulane as a favorite? Sign us up for a PLAY AGAINST!! The Central Florida Golden Knights travel to New Orleans to face the Tulane Green Wave in this AAC contest. Tipoff is 8:00 ET as televised by ESPN. When these teams met last season, UCF squeezed out a (103-100) OT win in Orlando and a (69-65) win on this court. That’s when Tulane was better and UCF was worse. Now, it’s UCF who enters at 10-9 SU, 12-5 ATS with a 4-4 SU, 5-3 conference log. This is totally dichotomous to the Tulane record of 8-15 SU, 6-10 ATS, including 1-9 SU, 3-6 ATS in AAC play. Yet, TULANE IS THE FAVORITE?

The Green Wave enter on a 5-game losing streak, which is typical of the program in conference play under HC Conroy. The Greenies are just 36-61 ATS in conference play under Conroy, including 3-6 ATS this year. Playing at home has not been an advantage, as Tulane has lost all 4 conference home starts by 8 or more points. Offense has clearly been an issue, as during the 5-game losing streak, Tulane has failed to crack the 50 point mark on 3 of those occasions. Shooting less than 30% from the arc will do that.

Enter UCF, who is the crossroads team in AAC, standing at 4-4 SU. At the halfway point, the Knights’ personality has been well defined in conference play. Against 3 superior teams in the league, Tulsa, Memphis and UConn, the Knights are 0-3 SU ATS. But when playing lower echelon teams, ECU and USF (each twice), UCF is 4-0 SU ATS covering the number by 43 points. It is very clear that at 1-9 SU, Tulane falls into those latter group of teams.

It will be a bonus if UCF (guard) Henriquez (knee) makes post tonight. But either way, we are all over UCF as an underdog in this matchup.

I invite you to put the NCAA basketball odds in your favor and join me in my NCAA basketball pick on Central Florida in this ACC matchup tonight.

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