Ride the Rebounding Edge for Alabama to ATS Win

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, December 6, 2017 12:54 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2017 12:54 PM UTC

After a few days off our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, returns with a pick on a recently ranked team that has lost its luster. Read on as he breaks down a home team that has excellent wagering value for his Wednesday NCAAB Pick.

Rhode Island Rams vs Alabama Crimson Tide

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Free NCAAB Pick: Alabama -2.5Best Line Offered: at Heritage

The 5-2 SU Rhode Island Rams travel to Tuscaloosa, Alabama on Wednesday evening to visit the 6-2 SU Alabama Crimson Tide of the SEC. This will be the last home game warmup for Alabama before their first road test this weekend on the campus of the Arizona Wildcats. The Crimson Tide has lost 2 of their last 3 games SU and have lost 4 of 5 ATS. They still find themselves as home favorites in this matchup though, as they’ve been instilled as 2.5-point favorites over the visiting Rams. The initial O/U total has opened at 145 at the early moving sites such as BookMaker and JustBet.

Alabama was ranked 24th when they lost their last game to UCF, 65-62, as listed 9.5-point favorites. They were able to contain 7’ 6” Tacko Fall of UCF, but also allowed their opponent to shoot 46.7% from 3pt range and shot only 23.1% from behind the arc themselves. Another reason for the upset was the putrid performance by their leading scorer, 6’ 3” freshman guard Collin Sexton. Sexton averages 22.1 points per game this year, but put up just 7 points on 0-5 shooting from the field and 7-8 from the charity stripe. He put up 40 points against a very good Minnesota team earlier this season, so this result is more than surprising. There is a big drop off to the second leading scorer for the Crimson Tide, as another freshman guard, 6’ 5” John Petty, only averages 12.3 points per game.

The Rams come into this game with a large rebounding deficit, as they rank 331st in the country with only 31.4 rebounds per game. One of the reasons for this is pretty basic – Rhode Island’s roster is short. They average just 6’ 4” across their roster, as compared to Alabama that averages 6’ 6” according to kenpom.com. Consider one of their losses against a quality team in Virginia, where Rhode Island got outrebounded 33-22. They do have an experienced backcourt leader in Jared Terrell though, who is a 6’ 3” senior who has averaged 27 minutes or more per game since his freshman year. He’s attempting more shots than ever this year and is leading the Rams with 17.9 points per game.

When I look at this game the offensive efficiency of Alabama at home really sticks out, and they shoot 52.9% from the field at Coleman Coliseum. Add that with the rebounding edge they will have and their 2.5-point chalk looks pretty reasonable. I will be backing the Crimson Tide as my Wednesday NCAAB Pick.

2017-18 NCAAB Record: 12-3, +8.80 Units

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