The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Indiana Hoosiers in a Big 10 contest at Assembly Hall on Thursday. It is a rivalry game to see who is the premier team in the state of Indiana. Here are our favorite college basketball picks between Purdue and Indiana.
Purdue has won three consecutive Big 10 games entering Thursday’s marquee showdown. The Boilermakers’ last game was a double-overtime thriller, in which they defeated Illinois 96-88 in Champaign. Overall, they are 9-8 against the spread this season. When it comes to game totals, they have an 11-6 record to the Over.
Indiana is coming off a seven-point win at Nebraska after dropping one at Iowa on the road. With an ATS record of 10-7 this season, Indiana has done a slightly better job covering the number. Indiana has been the opposite of Purdue in terms of totals. The Hoosiers are just 7-10 to the Over this season.
Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday’s college basketball matchup between Purdue and Indiana (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Purdue vs. Indiana Game Info
Date/Time: Thursday, Jan. 20, 7 p.m. ET
TV: Fox Sports 1
Location: Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
Purdue vs. Indiana Odds Analysis
Purdue opened as a 3.5-point road favorite against Indiana. There has been no change in Purdue's opening number and it remains at -3.5. Eighty-seven percent of the cash and 70% of the tickets are backing Purdue in this Big 10 matchup. Purdue is a -165 moneyline favorite.
At DraftKings, the total opened at 144 and remains there. Several sportsbooks opened this game at 145. However, most of these have been bet down to 144 or even 143.5. Caesars Sportsbook has the lowest total of 143.5.
Purdue vs. Indiana Picks
Purdue -3.5 (-110) ★★★
Under 144 (-115) ★★★★
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Purdue vs. Indiana Predictions
Purdue -3.5 (-110)
With center Zach Edey and forward Trevion Williams on the inside, Purdue is led by a dynamic duo. The big men get a lot of attention, but sophomore guard Jaden Ivey leads Purdue with 16.4 points per game. The Boilermakers have four players averaging over 11 points per game.
Indiana junior forward Trayce Jackson-Davis leads the Hoosiers in scoring with 19.5 points per game. Race Thompson, a fellow forward, is the only other player who is averaging double-digit points with 10.9 PPG..
While I'm not thrilled about backing a Matt Painter-coached team away from home, I believe the Hoosiers face some very serious matchup challenges. Against the 7-foot-4 Edey, 7-foot Illinois center Kofi Cockburn found it difficult to defend and establish offensive position. If Edey's size bothered Cockburn at both ends of the floor, what will it do to Jackson-Davis, who is 6-foot-9?
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While Jackson-Davis will have a lot of offensive responsibility for the Hoosiers, he will also be asked to take on defensive duties. Purdue will try to exhaust him on the defensive end by attacking his matchup constantly and potentially causing foul trouble.
Indiana also plays its man-to-man defense very high in the half-court. In addition to picking up well beyond the 3-point line, the Hoosiers like to apply constant pressure. Purdue and Painter can take advantage of this pressure by spacing the Indiana defense out, and Ivey is one of the best players in the nation when it comes to getting downhill and to the rim. It will create driving lanes for Ivey, as well as opening up offensive rebounding opportunities for the forwards.
Purdue simply has too many matchup advantages in this game, so I'm taking the Boilermakers -3.5.
Under 144 (-115)
Purdue averages 81.4 points per game away from home this season. It is 8.1 fewer points than its season average when playing at Mackey Arena. The Boilermakers' adjusted tempo on KenPom.com is 68.0, which is 185th in the nation. DraftKings has set their team total for this game at 72.5.
Indiana scores 75.7 points per game at Assembly Hall, compared with 73.8 points away from home. The Hoosiers have an adjusted tempo of 68.1 and are ranked 175th in college basketball. Their team total for this contest is 69.5 at DraftKings.
I'm taking the Under 144 for Purdue-Indiana. As a team, the Hoosiers rely heavily on Jackson-Davis to create offense; however, nothing will come easy for him on the interior and I'm not sure Indiana will put up enough points. The Hoosiers' best chance to score will be from 3-point range, but they are not very efficient from behind the arc. They score only 24.5 % of their total points from behind the 3-point line. In this category, they rank 12th in the Big 10.
Indiana Head coach Mike Woodson and his staff surely know they will struggle to keep up with Purdue's offense, and may decide to slow the tempo as a means of defense. The way Indiana scores its points makes it a terrible matchup against Purdue's defense.
KenPom ranks the Indiana defense 13th in college basketball. The Hoosiers should be able to contain Purdue's offense just enough to ensure this game doesn't reach the Over.
Purdue-Indiana picks made 1/202022 at 11:25 a.m. ET.