Place NCAA Basketball Picks on 'Over' in Illinois vs. Oregon

Joe Catalano

Saturday, December 14, 2013 4:52 PM GMT

Saturday, Dec. 14, 2013 4:52 PM GMT

The 15th ranked Oregon Ducks (8-0) host the Illinois Fighting Illini (9-1) in what should be one of the premiere matchups on the slate for NCAA Basketball Saturday Night. Does Illinois have the guns to match up against Oregon’s powerful offense?

The college basketball odds have the undefeated Ducks as a moderate 8 point betting favorite at home and the total for the game is 143.5.

Illinois ranks 203rd in the nation in points and will be facing a Ducks team which has scored over 100 points on 3 separate occasions this season and are coming off of a 115-105 overtime victory over Ole Miss. The way that Oregon is scoring, they might reach the betting total by themselves.

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The Mighty Marshall Henderson

Marshall Henderson is a name that sticks out as Lebron James mentioned him in a tweet last season and the scoring barrage that this player can put on.Oregon faced Henderson and the Ole Miss Rebels in their last game and although Henderson lit them up for 39 points, they managed to pull out a huge victory in overtime against the Rebels.

For the game, Oregon’s offense was out in full force, shooting 58.5 % from the field and 61.1% from 3-point range. The Ducks were also able dominate in ball distribution and pick-pocketing as they had a “+7” in the steals department. The only thing that Oregon might be lacking to their overall game is big-time rebounding.

Make sure to check out our:

Saturday NCAA Basketball Picks of the Day

Offense vs. Defense

While I rave about the offense of Oregon, they must deal with one of the better defenses in the nation in the Illinois Fighting Illini. Illinois hasn’t allowed more than 65 points in any game this season and although they haven’t played any top 25 teams, they’ve played some very respectable teams.

Illinois has 5 players that average over 4 rebound per game and have a definite edge on the glass against Oregon. The Fighting Illini are led by leading scorer Rayvonte Rice. Although this might not be as high of a score as one of Oregon’s usual games, Illinois won’t completely be able to hold Oregon in check and they’ll need some offensive support in Rice. Rice is an efficient and consistent scorer. He’ll need to have a 20 point plus game in order for Illinois to have a chance in this game.

Oregon features the 1-2 punch of Joseph Young (20.1 points, 3.5 rebounds) and Mike Moser (15 points, 7.4 rebounds). The Ducks are a team in which 7 out of its top 8 scorers shoot 50% or more from the field and their top 4 scorers shoot 40% or more from 3-point range. This is a true test of opposites facing eachother . The deciding factor in this game will be if Illinois can contain Oregon’s offense?

I’m leaning towards the side in this game and here are some trends for you to take a look at:

Trends

Over is 13-3 in Ducks last 16 overall

Over is 7-0 in Ducks last 7 games following a S.U. win.

Over is 6-0 in Ducks last 6 games following an A.T.S. win.

Under is 13-5 in Fighting Illini last 18 game overall.

Fighting Illini are 2-9 ATS in last 11 Saturday games. (for the superstitious bettors out there)

Outcome

While Oregon’s offense will be controlled to a degree by one of the best defenses in the country, it can’t be totally contained and the total for this game is somewhat low. Take the OVER for your free college basketball picks.

NCAAB Pick: Oregon /Illinois OVER 143.5 at Bet 365

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