Place NCAA Basketball Pick on Florida vs. Vanderbilt with Confidence as Short Spread Favors Correct Team

Steven Suarez

Tuesday, February 3, 2015 5:44 PM GMT

Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2015 5:44 PM GMT

The Commodores have been on a terrible run and now they have to contend with a Florida team that's built up some momentum recently. Come see why we like the Gators to cover the spread tonight.

Odds Overview
We figured the Gators would be favored in this situation, but we actually thought we'd see a higher number in NCAA Basketball odds. As it stands, Florida is laying 2.5 points to Vanderbilt in Nashville.

Diving deeper, we see the O/U is set pretty low at 125, which means we should be seeing more of a defensive struggle than anything else. It's a good thing, then, that the Gators have allowed 56 or fewer points in each of their two most recent games.

Check out our top NCAA Basketball Picks of the Day ATS.

Vanderbilt Commodores
To put it frankly, the Commodores aren't getting much attention because they haven't been playing well at all this season. They've won just one time in SEC play so far, and that came in the first game against Auburn. The Commodores are now on a seven-game losing streak, which has them in the basement of the conference.

Recent losses haven't been all that close either, as Vanderbilt lost by eight on the road against Georgia and then fell by 11 at Texas A&M. Yes, the Commodores will return home to Nashville and play in front of their own supporters, but they've dropped each of their last two games on their own court. They haven't exactly been making Memorial Gymasium a fortress.

Overall, Vanderbilt is 11-10, with Damian Jones and Riley LaChance acting as the team's primary playmakers. Jones is averaging 15.2 PPG and 6.8 RPG, both of which are team highs, while LaChance has put up 12.4 points per contest for the team. Both players are going to need to be at hteir best if Vandy is to have a shot at the upset at home.

 

Florida Gators
The Gators have been on a topsy turvy ride in the SEC so far. They opened with three straight losses but then lost three straight, only to recover to win two in a row again heading into tonight. Those wins came over Alabama on the road and Arkansas at home.

At 12-9 overall, it hasn't been a dream season for Florida by any means. But, the talent is there for the Gators, and we've seen Billy Donovan work some magic before. Looking at the strength of schedule, Florida has had a tough road so far, and while it's not going to get a ton easier, that should hold them in good stead going forward. Tournament time is when the Gators tend to turn it up an otch and reach their highest level.

Individually, Dorian Finney-Smith and Michael Frazier II have been the only two guys to average in double figures. The Gators haven't been the world's most efficient offensive team, so they've had to lean on their defensive intensity to guide them. They'll need to get things clicking a little better sooner rather than later if they want to mount any kind of challenge in the competitive SEC.

 

NCAA Basketball Pick
The Gators haven't been overly impressive or anything this season, but we still feel a heck of a lot more confident in them than we do the Commodores.

This is a pretty short spread, so we think there's quite a bit of value on Florida in this spot. The Gators have really locked in defensively recently and that should serve them well against a Vanderbilt team that's been a mess here lately.

Tonight we expect Florida to win their third straight, and in doing so we also believe they'll win by at least three points. With your NCAA Basketball picks for Tuesday night, consider backing the Gators on the spread. They're the more talented team and should be able to scrape out the win.

NCAA Basketball Pick: Florida Gators -2.5 at Pinnacle 

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