Pick Baylor -6.5 to Even the Score Against Oklahoma State in NCAA Basketball Big 12 Showdown

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, February 9, 2015 5:07 PM UTC

Monday, Feb. 9, 2015 5:07 PM UTC

Take advantage of this experienced NCAA Basketball handicapper's pick for Oklahoma State vs. Baylor. The current betting odds trading for this Big-12 matchup are favoring the home team by 6 points. 

Oklahoma St. at Baylor (-6-) 7:00 ET ESPNU
The Oklahoma St. Cowboys visit the Baylor Bears in Waco tonight for a game at the boisterous Farrell Center. In the brutal Big 12, these two teams are one of 6, greater than .500 conference teams, in a league where standout entities seem to cannibalize each other on a routine basis. Oklahoma St. enters the fray at 16-7 SU for the season, including 6-5 SU in Big 12 play. Baylor is 20-5 SU for the season with a 6-4 SU record in Big 12 play. When these teams met earlier this season, Oklahoma St. prevailed with a 64-53 victory as 4 point home favorite on January 27th. That was hardly a surprise as the Cowboys stand 50-10 SU at Gallagher-Iba Arena L4Y. But, revenge is only part of the reason why Baylor will turn around this matchup. Let’s go inside the thinking for the reasons why.

Oklahoma St. is basically a 2-man offensive show. It revolves around shooting guard Forte (who has been struggling through illness in the last week) and slashing wingman Nash, who is an outstanding complement to the long-range marksmanship of Forte. Under 7th year HC Ford, Oklahoma St. has continued a tradition of having one of the biggest home/road dichotomies on the college basketball landscape. This year, the Cowboys are 7-3 ATS at home, pushing their record to 44-23 ATS as home chalk on the college basketball odds. But in 7 years under Ford on the road, the Cowboys are just 12-35 ATS.  This includes 3 double digit losses on the Big 12 road this season to Kansas, Oklahoma and Kansas St. The preferred faster pace of Oklahoma St. also plays into the hands of Baylor.  

A major advantage for Baylor in this matchup comes with their rebounding edge (+11.4) led by interior force Rico Gathers. They figure to devour the Cowboys on the glass, setting the up-tempo tone for a deep high-scoring team. Quietly, however, it is the Baylor defense that leads the way. The Bears allow just 58 PPG on 38% shooting and 30% from the arc.  

The final factor favoring the Bears this evening is their current momentum which matches perfectly with the Oklahoma St. letdown. Oklahoma St. was left for road kill on their strong home boards against Kansas on Saturday afternoon. But, the Cowboys rallied for a 67-62 victory to create a further log jam at the top of the Big 12 Conference standings. Just 48 hours later, following that monumental comeback win, they are asked to summon a supreme effort on the road against a team they have already defeated. Not gonna happen! Saturday afternoon, Baylor had their own outstanding victory. It was a wire- to-wire job at WVU (making it 3 victories in a row), all by 18 or more points against Big 12 competition. With the momentum of that victory and the 3-game win streak, it is the ideal situation to gain their revenge against an Oklahoma St. team in letdown mode.  

NCAA Basketball Pick: Baylor Bears -6.5 at Bookmaker

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