Oklahoma State To Cover In Big 12 Brouhaha vs. Iowa State

Oklahoma State Cowboys player in action

Jason Lake

Tuesday, February 28, 2017 3:22 PM UTC

Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2017 3:22 PM UTC

The No. 24 Iowa State Cyclones have had their way with Oklahoma State the past five years. But they might be overmatched this Tuesday night in Ames.

So you’re thinking about adding the Iowa State Cyclones to your college basketball picks on Tuesday. They’ll be hosting the Oklahoma State Cowboys (at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2), a team they’ve dominated in recent years at 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS. The Cyclones have already moved from –3 to –4 on the NCAAB odds board, so somebody out there loves them.

Well, they are a pretty good team. ISU (19-9 SU, 15-10 ATS) has jumped back into the Top 25 with five straight wins SU and ATS; they’ll almost certainly draw a low number when the Selection Committee puts together its March Madness bracket. But what if I told you the Cowboys (20-9 SU, 15-8-1 ATS) were having the better season? And they were also on a roll at 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games?

Underwood: Evolution

The second part is absolutely true. The first part is subjective, but Ken Pomeroy has OSU ranked No. 19 overall on his efficiency charts, four spots ahead of the Cyclones. He’s also got the Cowboys pegged at 1.66 points per 100 possessions better than Iowa State. Both teams are battle-tested after playing a punishing Big 12 schedule, and both teams are healthy, so it should be a close one at the Hilton Coliseum – but the odds may have moved too far toward the home side.

Granted, the Cyclones have been the right pick more often than not the past five years. But this is Oklahoma State’s first season under head coach Brad Underwood; Travis Ford was fired last March after eight years in Stillwater. Underwood put together a very nice recruiting class to support his three-headed backcourt monster: junior Jeffrey Carroll (9.0 BPM), sophomore Jawun Evans (+8.9 BPM) and senior Phil Forte III (7.7 BPM).

And yet... Iowa State beat the Cowboys (–3.5 at home) 96-86 when they met in January. The Cyclones haven’t missed a beat since Steve Prohm took over the coaching reins from Fred Hoiberg two years ago. Prohm’s latest batch of recruits hasn’t paid off yet, but he also lured some quality transfers to Ames, and senior guards Monte Morris (+9.9 BPM) and Nazareth Mitrou-Long (+9.2 BPM) are playing as well as ever. We’re still going to put a slight lean on Oklahoma State for value, but don’t bet the farm on it – just a haystack or two.

Free NCAAB Pick: Oklahoma State +3Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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