Offensive & Defensive Stats Make Geo Washington Our NCAA Basketball Pick vs. Dayton

Charles Stark

Friday, January 15, 2016 8:01 PM GMT

George Washington has turned some heads this year and looks like to be a contender in the Atlantic 10. Tonight they travel to Dayton to take on the Flyers, who will be our NCAA basketball pick?

 

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NCAA Basketball Pick: George Washington +5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

NCAA basketball odds makers have made George Washington +5 and the total at 136. For my selection today I am going to back the Colonials plus the points to take this game to the wire and possibly pull the upset. This is very well coached team that is one of the best in the A10 and should be geared up to in what should be a hard fought road challenge.

 

George Washington Colonials
GW is averaging 76.2 points per game on 45.2% shooting from the field, and allowing 66.8 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field.  The addition of Tyler Cavanaugh has been a huge boost to this team with him averaging over 17 points per game.  Against the spread on the year the Colonials are 8-6, but only 3-4 on the road, and Dayton can be a really difficult place for teams to play. Offensively GW likes to control tempo averaging only 56.3 field goal attempts per game which ranks in the bottom part of the country. Across the board they are good not great in most other categories notably ranking 63rd in shooting efficiency. They don't attempt a lot of shots from distance instead relying on scoring inside the perimeter where they average over 50% on their two point shooting. Defensively the Colonials have been good from the inside out especially beyond the arc where they allow just 30.2% in opponent shooting from beyond the arc which ranks 21st in the NBA. George Washington has not been on the road a lot this season so playing in a tough environment like Dayton will be very challenging, but I expect them to rise to the occasion.

 

Dayton Flyers
Dayton is averaging 73.8 points per game while shooting 46.5% from the field, and allowing 65.8 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field. On the year against the spread they are 7-8 and 4-5 at home so tonight we expect them to get back to 50% with the odds makers.  Offensively, much like GW, they don't push the tempo putting up just 54.8 field goal attempts per game which ranks as one of the lower paces in the country. As well, much like GW, they don't shoot the three particularly well but are very efficient in their two point shooting averaging 54% from the field. Defensively they have been less than stellar beyond the arc allowing opponents to shoot 36.2% from distance averaging 7.2 per game. They do however defend in the interior very well allowing just 42.8% in opponent two point shooting good for 28th in the country. For the most part they don't rank as one of the better defensive teams but they are better than average and at home should boost their intensity. Still, GW matches up with them very well and should be able to put up enough points to take this to the buzzer.

Both the Flyers and the Colonials have some good veteran leadership and they matchup really well. For one of your NCAA basketball picks I recommend grabbing the points with GW to take this game to the final minute.  Look for a low and close final between these two solid A10 teams.