Odds Movement & Top Betting Trends – Weekend Edition

Doug Upstone

Friday, January 30, 2015 7:08 PM GMT

Friday, Jan. 30, 2015 7:08 PM GMT

Its Super Bowl weekend and everyone from those making NFL picks to the sportsbooks are waiting with anticipation for what should be an awesome contest and we have the most significant line move for the Big Game.

NCAA Basketball Matchups – Big Weekend Matchups

Duke vs. Virginia 7:00 ET  CBS
Virginia is the only team in the country that ranks among the nation's five best offenses and defenses on a per-possession basis. Duke is off a hard fought loss at Notre Dame and an emotional win at St. John’s. The Blue Devils are 4-2 and 3-3 ATS in true away games and figure to be a 4 to 6-point road underdog and they are 2-0 SU and ATS in that role. The Cavaliers are 10-0 and 5-3 ATS at home and will have to deploy interesting tactics for Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones. Big rest edge for Virginia who has not played since last Sunday.

Wisconsin vs. Iowa 12:00 ET  ESPN 
The Badgers are two games clear of anyone in the Big Ten and 11 days ago whipped Iowa 82-50 in Madison. The Hawkeyes can get back in the conference race with a victory, but will have to be much sounder on defense after allowing Wisconsin to shoot almost 50 percent. Iowa is 10-2 and 4-4 ATS at home but cannot give in things not going their way which they are known to do. The Badgers are 5-1 and 3-3 ATS on the road and should be 8 to 10-point visiting favorites.

 

Wichita State vs. Northern Iowa 4:00 ET ESPN2
Two terrific teams from The Valley and this promises to be a great basketball game. Northern Iowa values each possession and plays slow and they must impose their will on the Shockers, who are 6-1 and 4-3 ATS as guests. Wichita State prefers to push the ball and coach Greg Marshall has built the right frontcourt to go along with his special guards in Ron Baker and Free VanVleet. Look for the Panthers to be 4 to 6-point home underdogs where they are 10-0 (1-6-1 ATS).

 

North Carolina vs. Louisville 4:00 ET ESPN
If you will be tuning in to watch aesthetically pleasing basketball, forget it. Both these ACC squads struggle from the outside, are turnover-prone and get after the opposing team with defense and length. North Carolina is 4-1 and 3-2 ATS on the road and should be a standard 3 to 4-point underdog. Louisville will be out for revenge off 72-71 setback three weeks ago and is 11-2 (2-9-1 ATS) on their floor.

Minnesota vs. Philadelphia  7:05 ET  FS-NO, CSN-P
The Timberwolves are by their standards nearly as hot as Charlotte McKinney in the new Carl’s Jr. television commercial. Of course we are talking about their record against the betting odds as Minnesota has covered three straight and is 6-3 ATS in their last nine. Despite carrying just a 4-20 SU road record, the T-Wolves are thought to have some bite and been lifted from -1.5 to -4 at Philadelphia. In this battle of doormats, Minny having lost to the Sixers six weeks ago is 11-3 ATS revenging a home loss.

NBA Pick: Slight lean Philadelphia

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Golden State vs. Utah  9:05 ET CSN-BAY, ROOT-NW
For just the seventh time all season, Golden State will be playing after a loss, but those making sports picks; they have their eyes focused squarely on the total. The NBA odds opened at 203 for this Western Conference clash and they have been elevated to 205. Utah is a solid 16-5 UNDER after a home game this season and the Warriors have actually averaged fewer points off a loss compared to their regular scoring output. (108 vs. 111.1) I thought the original number was a low, but this seems very close to correct and I’ll just have a lean.

NBA Pick:  Lean Over

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Oregon State vs. Arizona 10:00 ET  PAC-12N
With Oregon State totaling just 57.2 PPG on the road this season, basketball bettors have plowed ahead and made the Beavers larger underdogs, now up to +18.5 from +17. Arizona’s typical margin of victory this season in Tucson has been 22.7 PPG and given the way they play defense and can score on the fastbreak, why should they have an issue reaching 11-2 ATS at home after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games?

NCAA Basketball Pick:  Arizona covers

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St. Louis vs. Carolina  7:05 ET  FS-MW, SPSO
They are not singing the blues about the Blues in St. Louis as they are 7-1 in the last eight. However, Carolina has won three in a row and seven of 10, which has influenced the Blues falling from -150 to -130 on the money line. Another factor could be this is St. Louis’ first away game since Jan. 6th and they might not be ready for the rigors of the road. The home team has won five in a row in this series, let’s walk that way.

NHL Pick: Carolina wins

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New England vs. Seattle  6:30 ET  NBC
All the discussion among NFL football handicappers and the rest of the world is who wins, New England or Seattle? Yet in the betting world the total is where the action is and after reaching 49 points on Jan. 20th from opening 48.5, as of Friday the adjusted number is 47. Besides the betting public taking this from 2-to-1 OVER back on the aforementioned date to 50-50 today, if you review the brand name websites having their “experts” giving their prediction  on the Super Bowl, more than 80 percent have predictions that total less than 47 points. My initial thought was an OVER, but as I did more research, I can see the logic in the line move. I’ll stick with my original belief, just not as strongly.

NFL Pick:  Lean Over

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Sportsbook Review Tasty Trends

NBA ATS Trend
Atlanta is 17-2 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season. 

NBA Totals Trend
Miami is 11-1 UNDER this January.

NCAA Basketball ATS Trend
Western Illinois is 0-10 ATS after playing five consecutive games as an underdog.

NHL Money Line Trend
New Jersey is 2-15 after two or more consecutive wins since last season.

NFL ATS Trends
New England is 10-1 ATS vs. offensive teams averaging 375 or more yards a game the last three seasons.
Seattle is 9-1 ATS vs. teams allowing 235 or more passing yards a game in the second half of the season the last two seasons. 

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