Odds Movement & Top Betting Trends for Wednesday's Sports Picks: NCAA Basketball, NBA & NHL

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, March 4, 2015 7:14 PM GMT

It’s the middle of the work week which means a large volume of games to choose from for those making sports picks or perusing over the betting odds for the NBA, NHL or college basketball. 

We have narrowed down the choices of line moves to five and will do our best to explain why they occurred and what might be the correct team to wager on. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (411-360 L144D)

 

NBA – Pistons vs. Pelicans  8:05 ET   FS-D, FS-NO
Several factors are in play as to why New Orleans is a growing favorite over Detroit. The Pelicans have flown from -2 to -5.5 at home over the Pistons, starting with having won and covered five of six. Detroit arrives in the Big Easy finding life hard, being losers of three in a row as they continue road trip. Also, they are rumors that Anthony Davis might be ready to play tonight and all these matters are affecting the NBA odds for this contest. Having just lost at Dallas on Monday, New Orleans is 15-2-1 ATS off a road defeat, yet the adjusted spread appears high when you realize the Pistons are 15-12 ATS in away outings, losing by 1.2 points a game. 

NBA Pick – Lean Detroit

 

NBA – Kings vs. Spurs  8:35 ET  CSN-CA, FS-SW
The Spurs wrapped up their Rodeo Trip at 4-5 and 3-6 ATS last Saturday and return to action for the first time since. Tim Duncan has called his team “..a work in progress” and Tony Parker has stated his hamstring is curtailing his effectiveness. But a rested San Antonio team has been better on offense and a little worse on defense, scoring 105.2 PPG (100.8 season average) and allowing 102.8 (97.1 season average) when taking the court with three or more days off. With Sacramento 27th in the league in points allowed at 106.1 on the road, the total has zoomed from 203 to 206. This is not an easy call; however, I did find the Spurs are 9-1 OVER at home after allowing 85 points or less the last two seasons. 

NBA Pick – Lean Over

 

NCAA Basketball – Utah State vs. Wyoming 9:00 ET
Utah State might be one game ahead of Wyoming in the Mountain West Conference standings and on a 6-0 SU and ATS spurt, but the NCAA Basketball odds are piling up against them at moving from +4 to +6.5. The Cowboys are 16-2 SU at home, but have just a 4-9 ATS mark, while the Aggies are a solid 8-4 ATS in away games. Since becoming conference partners last year, the home team has won all three games by double digits. As a college basketball handicapper, I like the angles favoring Utah State and prefer the fact they are the better offensive squad. 

NCAA Basketball Pick –Utah State covers

 

NCAA Basketball – TCU vs. Oklahoma State  9:00 ET  ESPNU
The Horned Frogs have been very competitive of late in the Big 12 with five straight covers and three victories. Nevertheless, hoops bettors are not thinking this streak will continue even against an Oklahoma State squad that is on a 0-4 SU and ATS downturn. The Cowboys are higher in the saddle after being moved from -6.5 to -8.5. It is worth noting Okie State is 6-0 ATS home after scoring 25 points or less in the first half of last game and it is Senior Night, yet this number seems too larger for a valuable NCAA basketball pick

NCAA Basketball Pick – TCU covers

 

NHL – Penguins vs. Avalanche 10:05 ET   ROOT-P, ALT
Looking for a fifth consecutive victory, the visiting Penguins could have a pair of recently acquired defensemen available to help continue their success over Colorado. Pittsburgh was out to fortify their defense for the postseason and look to keep the pressure on both New York teams in the Metropolitan Division who are ahead of them. The Penguins have won six of seven against the Avalanche and been lifted from -140 to -160 or higher on the money line depending on the sportsbook. Colorado has quite a bit of work to do to reach the playoffs and its defense cannot surrender three or more goals like they have in five of the past six contests. For NHL picks, hard to not like the Pens here. 

NHL Pick – Pittsburgh wins

 

Sportsbook Review Tasty Trends

NBA ATS Trend: Brooklyn is 1-10 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season. 

NBA Totals Trend: Miami is 18-5 UNDER after a non-conference game this season. 

NCAA Basketball ATS Trend: Pittsburgh is 2-14 ATS after three straight games committing 11 or less turnovers the last two seasons. 

NHL Money Line Trend: N.Y. Rangers are 14-2 after three straight games with 33 or more shots on goal the last two seasons.