Odds Movement & Top Betting Trends for Thursday's Action

Doug Upstone

Thursday, March 19, 2015 5:29 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 19, 2015 5:29 PM UTC

It’s just like Christmas Day for sportsbooks, those making sports picks and college basketball handicappers. The difference is some of those entities are competing against each other. 

With this being the case, sides and totals are going in different directions and we are excitedly on all the latest line moves. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (436-385 L154D)


Lafayette vs. Villanova 6:50 ET  TBS
In this 1 vs. 16 matchup, the total has been lowered three points to 144.5. Both Lafayette and Villanova are excellent shooting teams at 47 percent or higher, but those placing college basketball picks have to likethe Wildcats defense, which has surrendered just 60.9 points a game and holding opposing teams to 40.5 shooting. In case you did not know this, Nova is 6-0 UNDER as a neutral court favorite this season. College

NCAA Tournament Pick – Lean Under

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Purdue vs. Cincinnati 8:05 ET CBS
In this 8 vs. 9 contest in the Midwest Regional, we have seen a flip in the favorite. Purdue began as a one-point favorite and has been sent to the role of underdog, catching two points. The rational for the switch has merit, especially when you consider the form of each squad when it comes to putting the ball thru the net. In the Boilermakers last five games, they are shooting 41.5 percent and averaging just 61 points a contest. Cincinnati is not scoring a lot more at 66.6 PPG; however, their offensive efficiency is superior in draining 50.4 percent of their attempts. Since these two schools are so tenacious on defense, whoever finds the range is your likely winner against the betting odds. 

NCAA Tournament Pick – Cincinnati covers

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UCLA vs. SMU 3:10 ET  TruTV
After being snubbed a year ago, SMU has something to prove in the NCAA Tournament. The Mustangs opening contest is versus UCLA, who many did not feel belonged this season in the field of 68. SMU has registered with those studying the NCAA Tournament odds and has moved upwards from -2.5 to -4. The Ponies can really clamp down on defense, as teams averaged only 59.8 PPG against them, while making only 38 percent of attempts. Reports have UCLA players disgusted to be dragged through the proverbial mud in making the tourney and if UCLA sophomore guard Bryce Alford, who ranks 43rd nationally in assists, thinks pass first instead of shot, the Bruins will have a shot. If SMU’s more powerful frontcourt controls the action, they will win and cover.

NCAA Tournament Pick– Lean SMU

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S.F. Austin vs. Utah 7:25 ET  TruTV
Stephen F. Austin likes to play at a harrowing pace, which is why they average 79.5 PPG. Utah tends to be more selective in going up and down the 94 feet and has shown they can play lockdown defense, holding opposing teams to only 56.9 points a game. Hoops bettors believe the Utes can control the tempo and submerged the total from 132 to 130.5. Here is a number to ponder, Utah is 9-2 UNDER versus teams outrebounding opponents by four or more per game this season. I’m going contrarian, thinking the total rises to around 140.

NCAA Tournament Pick– Play Over

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Ohio State vs. VCU 4:40 ET  TNT
Though Ohio State is the lower seed, they are from the power conference were established as the favorite. Since then the Buckeyes support has grown from -2.5 to -4. An argument can be made Ohio State is at least five or more points better than the VCU, but how does a squad with arguably the second-best talent in the Big Ten manage to lose 10 games? The Buckeyes remind me of the Tin Man from the Wizard of Oz movie, frequently playing without a heart. With Ohio State 5-8 and 4-8 ATS away from Columbus, the Rams because of their effort are the NCAA Tournament pick here. 

NCAA Tournament Pick – VCU covers

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Sportsbook Review Tasty Trends

Denver is 0-10 ATS when playing with two days rest this season. 

CBB Totals Trend
Purdue is 13-1 OVER when the total is 119.5 or less.

N.C. State is 10-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more the last two seasons. 

NHL Money Line Trend
Dallas is 3-15 at home when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. 

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