Oakland vs. Kentucky Prediction & March Madness Odds: Wagner Unleashes on Golden Grizz

The heavily favored Kentucky Wildcats face the Oakland Golden Grizzlies in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, and we expect D.J. Wagner to sizzle in our Oakland vs. Kentucky prediction based on the best March Madness odds.

The No. 14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies clinched the Horizon League regular-season title and continued their momentum by winning the conference tournament crown, securing a spot in March Madness. However they face an mammoth task against the No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats.

While falling short of the dominant season expectations of Wildcat faithful, Kentucky managed to secure a No. 3 seed in the tournament. The stellar performance of senior Antonio Reeves and a talented group of freshmen players drove this success.  

It's a loaded roster capable of making noise in the NCAA Tournament and is among both the Final Four odds favorites and the March Madness odds favorites.

As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Oakland vs. Kentucky prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Oakland vs. Kentucky odds

Oakland (14) vs. Kentucky (3) prediction: South Region 

D.J. Wagner Over 10.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +100 via FanDuel

John Calipari entered the 2022-23 season with the best freshman class in the country surrounding Reeves. With the senior guard being the star of the second-highest scoring offense in the country (89.4 points per game), the Wildcats have had many of their freshmen step up as the second fiddle throughout the season.

That makes it tough to project who will have a big night against Oakland, but D.J. Wagner is positioned to bring his best against a flimsy defense. The Golden Grizzlies rank 165th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, the ninth-worst ranking of any NCAA Tournament team this season.

Even with a Horizon League schedule, Oakland allowed 72.9 points per game, 218th in the country. It struggled all over the court, allowing opponents to shoot 50.5% from two and 33.9% from three, both ranking in the bottom half of the country.

That sets all of Kentucky's seven-man rotation up for a big performance, including Wagner, who averaged 10.3 points per game this season while playing the fourth-most minutes. He's gone Over 10.5 points in two of his last four games and has done it 12 times this season. The son of Dajuan Wagner can follow in his father's footsteps with a big game for Calipari.

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Oakland vs. Kentucky best odds

FanDuel (+100)

Only one of our best sports betting apps is offering player props for Kentucky's matchup with Oakland. However, at FanDuel, Wagner's total points prop stands out compared to his teammates. While Reeves, Reed Sheppard, and Rob Dillingham all average more points per game, their props are far less valuable with -120 or shorter odds, and their point totals are higher.

We love getting Wagner at even-money with this matchup against the Golden Grizzlies' lackluster defense.

We'd take the Over on Wagner's points up to 11.5 as long as the odds are longer than -110. At +100 odds, Wagner has a 50% implied probability of hitting the Over, according to our odds calculator. A $10 bet on this prop would lead to a $10 profit if Wagner hits the Over.

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Oakland vs. Kentucky spread & Over/Under analysis

Kentucky opened as a 12.5-point favorite over Oakland with the line quickly moving a point in the Wildcats' direction. While this Golden Grizzlies team was the best program in the Horizon League, it's the 10th-lowest-rated team to make March Madness on KenPom.

Don't be surprised if the line moves another point in Kentucky's direction, as it's already shifted from 13.5 to 14 at Caesars. The Wildcats are 18-14 ATS this season while Oakland is 21-13.

Between Kentucky having one of the best offenses in the country and Oakland averaging 76.4 points per game, the game total opened at 161.5 at our best sportsbooks and continues to rise.

It's now as high as 163.5 at FanDuel and could balloon to 165 by tip-off. Kentucky is 23-9 to the Over this season - fourth-best in the country - and the Golden Grizzlies are 21-13.

Oakland vs. Kentucky game info

• When: Thursday, March 21
• Tip-off: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, Pa.
• How to watch: CBS

Oakland-Kentucky prediction made Monday at 10:45 a.m. ET.

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