O/U NCAA Basketball Picks: Two Big 'Under' Values On Tonight's Card

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, February 16, 2016 5:15 PM UTC

Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2016 5:15 PM UTC

Our NCAAB handicapper spots a few games that should be defensive battles and cash tickets for those willing to play the Under for their NCAA basketball picks. Don't miss it!

Michigan vs. Ohio State (Under 138.5)
In a game that should be a tight one, currently listed at pick’em at most books, the Michigan Wolverines (19-7, 9-4) travel to the Ohio State Buckeyes (16-10, 8-5) on Tuesday night in a Big Ten showdown. I’m interested in this game as the total is currently listed at 138.5 at Bookmaker. That total is the highest listed total in the last ten meetings between these two schools, with the trend being 4-6 in favor of the Under.

These two teams haven’t met since last year as Michigan took that meeting at home 64-57. They played twice in 2015 though, with the first game being taken at home by the Buckeyes, 71-52. Both of these games had totals in the high 120’s and cashed for the Under bettors. I can’t really pinpoint the exact reason that the total tonight is in the 130’s, except for some betting trends each team has realized over the last few weeks. Michigan games on the road have gone over the total in each of the last five and Ohio State games have gone over in 6 of their last 9.

I expect a drudging pace in this game, one featuring the 22nd ranked home defense in Ohio State, as they give up only 60.9 points per game at home this year. Michigan doesn’t do too bad on the road on defense either, giving up 71.4 points per game over this season. The totals in this series have cashed the under 5 of the last 6 times when played at Ohio State, and I’m backing that number by taking Under 138.5 in this game as one of my NCAA basketball picks.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Under 138.5
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

West Virginia vs. Texas (Under 137.5)
In this Big 12 clash between ranked teams, the West Virginia Mountaineers (20-5, 9-3) try to avenge for a home loss to the Texas Longhorns (16-9, 7-5) just a few weeks ago. That game ended in a 56-49 win for Texas, who was playing as a twelve-point underdog on the road. The total of 105 was well under the wagering total of 146, and would be well under tonight’s listed total of 137.5.

While both teams repeating their poor shooting in this game is unlikely, the pace of play in the first game leads us to believe that the under should cash again. Texas shot 39% in that last matchup in West Virginia, but only put up 41 attempts in the game. You can shoot 50% from the field and not reach 70 points if you only take 40 attempts. Of course, West Virginia shot worse from the field, hitting at a 31.1% rate and whiffing from 3-point range by going 3-21. Incredibly, West Virginia also only shot 34.8% from the free throw line. Texas can’t take the credit for good defense in that regard.

Texas games have gone under the total in 5 of the last 6, and 4 of 5 of the last games with West Virginia. Being that the last game was a defensive battle just a few short weeks ago, I’m inclined to believe that there are some key player matchups that suppress scoring between these two clubs. For that reason, I’m seeing a game played in the 60’s, which should be good enough to post a score Under the total of 137.5 for one of your Tuesday college basketball picks.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Under 137.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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