O/U NCAA Basketball Picks: Duo Of Mountain West Totals With Value

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, February 23, 2016 1:12 PM GMT

Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2016 1:12 PM GMT

Our NCAAB handicapper heads to the Mountain West for a pair of totals plays to boost your Tuesday bankroll. Don't miss our selections and add them to your NCAA basketball picks.

UNLV vs. Boise State (Over 150.5)
Two teams with up tempo offenses clash in this Mountain West affair, as the Boise State Broncos (17-10, 8-6) host the UNLV Running Rebels on Tuesday night. The two teams are looking to keep pace in the crowded Mountain West standings, with San Diego State holding a 13-1 advantage in conference play before the post-season tournament. These two teams met a few weeks ago, with UNLV runnin’ away with the game, 87-77, as a 3.5-point favorite. The score went well over the listed total of 150 for the game. For this game, the Broncos are listed as a 6-point favorite in the NCAA basketball odds boards and the O/U total has opened at 150.5 at Bookmaker.

The first meeting between these two teams went over the total without any anomalies in scoring which would make you believe the performance can’t be repeated. Boise State scored 77 points on just 42.4% shooting from the field – lower than their 45.4% season average. UNLV shot slightly above their season average at 48.5%, but in putting up 87 points they would have to regress mightily not to score a valuable number against the O/U total listed for this game. UNLV also shot just 28.6% from 3-point range and 63% from the charity stripe in the first game as well.

The value here is on the philosophy of Boise State’s head coach, Leon Rice, who likes to run and gun on offense. UNLV has shown that they will welcome a game like that, and can win, so there will not be any motivation to try to slow the game down on Boise State’s home court. Boise State should not have a problem scoring their season average at home of 81.7 points. UNLV on the other hand, just needs to keep pace and has shown they can, with UNLV’s season average of 78.1 points per game. The over is 5-0 between these two teams at Boise State in their last five meetings, which makes the over of 150.5 at BookMaker the right Tuesday NCAA basketball pick.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Over 150.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

New Mexico vs. Colorado State (Under 158.5)
Staying in the Mountain West for my next pick as we have the New Mexico Lobos (16-11, 9-5) on the road at the Colorado State Rams (14-13, 6-8). It’s the first meeting of the year between these two teams, with New Mexico a bubble team trying to stay alive for NCAA Tournament consideration. The line in this game has been set up at Pick’em, and the O/U total is currently listed at 158.5 at BookMaker.

When matched up, these two teams have historically played in games where the score is contrary to season scoring averages. For this reason, the under is 9-2 in the last 11 matchups between these two teams, 5-1 in the last six matchups at Colorado State, and have had a total score averaging 136.4 points in the last ten meetings. In comparison, New Mexico averages 73.8 points per game on the road and Colorado State averages 83.3 points per game at home this season. These averages have amassed a 15-9 O/U record for New Mexico, and a 15-8 O/U record for Colorado State.

With the over cashing with regularity for these teams this season, the O/U total listed on this game is just a tad bit inflated in my opinion. I’m backing the trend that stretches back 11 games favoring the under, and taking under 158.5 at BookMaker as one of my Tuesday NCAAB Picks.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Under 158.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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