NIT Opening Night Will Have Score Boards Light Up

California Golden Bears

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, March 14, 2017 1:24 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 14, 2017 1:24 PM UTC

The NIT kicks off on Tuesday, and with the new experimental rules in place to increase scoring I’m looking for matchups that could be effected by the new rules. Turns out there are quite a few situations in which the Over is the pick of the day.

2016-17 NCAAB Record: 50-35-2, +11.71 Units 

Indiana vs Georgia Tech

This game includes two angles considering the new experimental rules that favor the home team Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. First of all, teams that foul more will be penalized with the new bonus system, and Indiana fouls at a rate of 21 times per game on the road. That is heavy compared to Georgia Tech’s 16 fouls per game at home and could put them in the new NIT quarterly foul shooting bonus structure in this matchup more than once.

Indiana also struggles on defense on the road, allowing teams to shoot 45.6% from the floor and 79.7 points per game. Add in a few extra possessions for the Yellow Jackets because of the new shot clock rules and Georgia Tech should exceed their season average of 69.7 points per game. And if for some reason Georgia Tech can’t take advantage and win this matchup straight up, it is because Indiana scored near their 80.2 points per game average on the year, which makes the Over 142.5 pick in this game fine either way.

Free NCAAB Pick: Georgia Tech +3 & Over 142.5, 5DimesBest Line Offered: at Pinnacle (Spread) & at 5Dimes (Total)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3174867, "sportsbooksIds":[238,19,1096,93,123], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Cal State Bakersfield vs California

Again, we have a team with a clear trend in fouling a lot in games with the Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners, who pick up 23 fouls per game on average. With this total sitting at a low 122, it won’t take many untimed scoring chances at the charity stripe to get this game over the mark.

Both of these teams have picked up the pace lately as well, going a combined 5-0 O-U in their last five games. It goes against quite a few season long trends for these teams, and those season long trends have also combined to put an ultra-low total on this game. It’s a bit of a contrarian angle, but we could see Cal with 8 to 10 more free throws than normal in this game because of the experimental rules. That’s enough for me to take the Over of 122 at BookMaker.

Free NCAAB Pick: Over 122Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3174870, "sportsbooksIds":[93,238,19,1275,180], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


Boise State vs Utah

Boise State enters this game with a strong 11-4 O-U trend in road games, which matches up well with Utah’s 15-5 O-U record in their last 20 non-conference games. But it isn’t trends I’m interested in here, it is Boise State’s tendency to foul on the road – a lot. Boise State average 23 fouls per game on the road this year, a fact that could put Utah in the bonus quite often with the new experimental NIT rules that essentially mock the NBA quarter bonus system.

Utah shoots 50.8% from the floor and averages 81.4 points per game at home this year. The new NIT rules will guarantee them about 6 extra possessions, which could translate to six points above their season average. That’s enough for me to take Over 155 in this game at BetOnline as one of my Tuesday college basketball picks.

Free NCAAB Pick: Over 155 Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3174869, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,1275,19,180], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here