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Moussa Cisse of the Oklahoma State Cowboys reacts to a foul during the Big 12 Tournament game and we look at our top odds and predictions for the NIT game between North Texas and Oklahoma State.
Moussa Cisse of the Oklahoma State Cowboys reacts to a foul during the Big 12 Tournament game against the Texas Longhorns. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images via AFP.

A Power Five conference team faces a tough mid-major as the Oklahoma State Cowboys host the North Texas Mean Green in the NIT quarterfinals. Read on for our North Texas vs. Oklahoma State prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

North Texas (28-7, 16-4 C-USA) has won 13 of 15 games entering this NIT quarterfinal matchup. The Mean Green’s biggest non-conference win was a two-point victory over Grand Canyon, which won the WAC tournament and earned a No. 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament. North Texas also beat a UAB team that is still alive in the NIT twice in the regular season.

Oklahoma State (20-15, 8-10 Big 12) is in its first NIT since losing to Western Kentucky in the quarterfinals in 2018. Oklahoma State is now 11-13 all-time in the NIT and would face the winner of Oregon-Wisconsin if it advances.

Here is our best North Texas vs. Oklahoma State prediction (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

North Texas vs. Oklahoma State odds

North Texas vs. Oklahoma State prediction

North Texas +5.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

To this point, Oklahoma State has not looked like a team soured by the fact that it was the last one left out of the NCAA Tournament field. The Cowboys survived a road game at Youngstown State when scheduling conflicts prevented it from hosting its opening-round NIT game, and the Cowboys beat Eastern Washington by 11 in a game it led by as much as 15.

However, North Texas is 4-0 in games decided by three points or fewer, and its dominance through two NIT games (it beat Alcorn State and Sam Houston State by 36 combined points) is something to take note of. In addition, C-USA teams (FAU, UAB, Rice, and Charlotte) are a combined 9-1 in the postseason, and that trend has us more confidently backing the point spread than the total.

North Texas plays at D-I’s slowest tempo and spends an average of 21.3 seconds on offense per possession. Mike Boynton’s Oklahoma State squad will likely oblige in that slow tempo, ranking in the bottom half of the Big 12 in tempo (per KenPom) in league play.

In addition, the Cowboys rank 316th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage (31.4%), and shooting over the top is a necessity against the Mean Green’s no-middle defense. Though Oklahoma State ranks sixth in Haslametrics’ near-shot proximity field-goal percentage allowed, that is not that important against a Mean Green offense that ranks 57th nationally in 3-point shooting (36.4%).

The Under is 9-5 when Oklahoma State is a home favorite and is 5-2-1 when North Texas has just one day off. Thus, we are taking the points in what should be a low-scoring affair with limited possessions.

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

North Texas vs. Oklahoma State best odds

BetMGM (-115)

DraftKings FanDuel BetMGM Caesars PointsBet
+4.5 +3.5 +5.5 +4 N/A
-110 -102 -115 -105 N/A

It is rare to find a point spread on a game that all four major sportsbooks differ on, and it's even rarer that the spread has a range of two points. Therefore, despite paying slightly extra in juice, North Texas backers are getting the most value at BetMGM, as the difference between a +5.5 point spread and a +3.5 point spread is a full possession.

Thus, we are placing this wager at BetMGM before it corrects itself and aligns more with the competing sportsbooks. We would play this number down to +4.5.

North Texas vs. Oklahoma State odds analysis

The Cowboys opened as consensus 5.5-point favorites, and BetMGM is the only sportsbook that has remained at this number. The betting splits align with the movement toward the Mean Green, as 60% of all wagers have backed the underdogs.

The consensus O/U opened at 124.5, and BetMGM and DraftKings still offer that number. Elsewhere, the total has dipped as low as 123.5 at FanDuel. The early O/U wagers are split exactly 50/50.

North Texas vs. Oklahoma State game info

Date: Tuesday, March 21, 7:00 p.m. ET
Location: Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, OK

North Texas-Oklahoma State pick made 3/21/2023 at 6:26 a.m. ET.

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