NCAAB Picks: Lay Points When San Diego St. Take on George Washington

Charles Stark

Tuesday, March 29, 2016 11:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 29, 2016 11:00 AM UTC

Four teams remain in the NIT and in this particular matchup we should see some tough defensive play.  Odds makers have come out making San Diego State a small favorite over George Washington from the Atlantic 10.  The Aztecs are one of the best defensive teams in the country but will GW be able to break through and pull off the minor upset?

The NCAA basketball odds have San Diego State a -3 favorite.  For one of my NCAA Tournament picks I will back Aztecs minus the points to put the clamps down on the Colonials.  George Washington has a solid team but there will be some tough matchups for them tonight.

George Washington
The Colonials average 75.9 points per game and have averaged over 80 points per game in their last five games.  I had GW when they took on Monmouth at Monmouth because this is a really good basketball team across the board.  They don’t do anything great but they rank in the top part of all NCAA teams in most offensive categories highlighted by hitting 36.9% from beyond the arc which ranks 64th in the country. Defensively they are not very good however and rank in the bottom half of all teams in opponent field goals attempted and made per game.  Their overall defensive percentages rank well outside the top 100 teams allowing opponents to shoot 43.3% overall and 33.7% from distance.  To their advantage though is the fact that SDSU is not a very good offensive team that relies mainly on their defense to win games.  If GW can push some tempo I think they have an ok shot to pull the minor upset but the Aztecs to me are really the better team and defensively I am anticipating for the Colonials to struggle tonight.

San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs average just 69 points per game but rank first, second, and third in the country in opponent overall shooting percentage, opponent three point shooting percentage, and opponent points per game respectively.  The Aztecs really should have made the big dance but got upset by Fresno State.  They have taken their frustrations out on their last three opponents winning by at least 15 points in their NIT matchups.  Offensively they struggle and rank in the bottom half of all teams in all major offensive categories.  However, in those NIT games they scored 79, 93, and 72 points while shooting at much better percentages across the board per average.  Of course defense is the core of this team and they are one of the best in the country.  Partly is because of their pace where they average just 57.8 shots per game which ranks in the middle of all teams but there is no denying their defensive percentages.  Including the stats mentioned earlier the Aztecs also rank first in the country in opponent shooting efficiency and opponent effective field goal percentage.  They also rank fifth and sixth in opponent two point shooting percentage and opponent field goals made per game.

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Free NCAA Tournament Pick:  San Diego State -3 -105
Best Line Offered:  at 5Dimes 

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