NCAA Basketball Picks Based On The 12 Best & Worst ATS Teams In L5 Seasons

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Kevin Stott

Friday, September 23, 2016 10:05 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 23, 2016 10:05 PM UTC

Let’s take a look at the updated 2016/17 NCAA College Basketball Championship odds from Offshore sportsbook, the 12 best and the 12 worst ATS teams over the past 5 college hoops seasons and then make a pair of mid-range and longshot Futures Book picks for your consideration.

The 2016/17 NCAA Men’s Basketball season tips off on Nov. 11 with Big East heavyweight Villanova looking to defend its national championship and with players like Kris Jenkins, Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart back in The City of Brotherly Love and others current of former Big East schools like Louisville (ACC), Connecticut (AAC) and Syracuse (ACC) also looking like contenders, this region of the US could again surprise and provide us with our champion come April.


NCAA Basketball Season Around the Corner, Great Time to Find Future Market Value
The 2016/17 NCAA Division I Men’s College Basketball season tips off in less than two months on Nov. 11 with Practices officially beginning in less than two weeks on Sept.30, and with NCAA Futures Book Odds having now been out all Spring and Summer and having received decent amounts of money bet on them, let’s take a look at updated Championship odds from Offshore sportsbook—which is now offering a 100% Free Play Bonus for new signups (up to $1,000), and which has earned a C grade from Sportsbook Review in our Rating Guide of Best Sportsbooks, and also take a look at who have been the best and worst teams ATS over the L5 seasons (2011/12 to 2015/16).

The best ATS team in College Basketball the L5 seasons (minimum 50 ATS results) has been Indiana University - Purdue University Fort Wayne (IPFW), which has gone an impressive 83-49-5 ATS (62.9%) over the L5 NCAA seasons while College of Charleston has been the worst of the lot with the Cougars having gone 54-88-2 ATS (38.0%) over that same span. A deeper dive reveals that IPFW (3,000/1 to win NCAA Championship, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook; opened 2,000/1)—the Mastodons qualified for the NCAA Tournament last season—has also the best NCAA Basketball team Against the Point Spread over the L10 seasons, going an impressive 107-70-5 (60.5%) of basketball schools with a minimum of 75 ATS results.

Here are the 24 College Basketball teams who have had the most and least success over the past five seasons with their combined overall ATS Records in all games and their ATS Winning Percentages. And it’s obviously just as important know who’s consistently bad in a given sport in which you’re betting on as it is to know who’s consistently good.

NCAAB Top 12 ATS Combined L5 Seasons (2011/12—2015/16, Minimum 50 ATS Games)
1—IPFW Mastodons 83-49-5 (62.9%)
2—Wichita State Shockers 99-63-4 (61.1%)
3—Yale Bulldogs 62-40-6 (60.8%)
4—Utah Utes 91-62-4 (59.5%)
5—South Dakota State Jackrabbits (58.5%)
6—Michigan State Spartans 101-72-5 (58.4%)
7—Villanova Wildcats 95-68-3 (58.3%)
8—St. Joseph’s Hawks 86-62-3 (58.1%)
9—St. Bonaventure Bonnies 83-60-2 (58.0%)
10—Arkansas Little Rock Trojans 83-60-1 (58.0%)
11—Manhattan Jaspers 87-64-3 (57.6%)
12—Iowa State Cyclones 88-66-3 (57.1%)
NCAAB Bottom 12 Combined ATS L5 Seasons (2011/12—2015/16, Minimum 50 ATS Games)
1—College of Charleston Cougars 54-88-2 (38.0%)
2—Pittsburgh Panthers 61-91-3 (40.1%)
3—Cal State Fullerton Titans 54-78-4 (40.9%)
4—Oral Roberts Golden Eagles 43-63-1 (41.3%)
5—Northern Colorado Bears 56-78-4 (41.8%)
6—Rutgers Scarlet Knights 59-82-0 (41.8%)
7—Florida Atlantic Owls 57-79-0 (41.9%)
8—IUPUI Jaguars 58-80-0 (42.0%)
9—Bradley Braves 62-85-4 (42.2%)
10—Cal Poly Mustangs 62-85-4 (42.2%)
11—Dartmouth Big Green 40-53-5 (43.0%) 
12—Mercer Bears 35-46-4 (43.2%)

The last 20 NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Champions in reverse order have been Villanova, Duke, Connecticut, Louisville, Kentucky, Connecticut, Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, Florida, North Carolina, Connecticut, Syracuse, Maryland, Duke, Michigan State, Connecticut, Kentucky, Arizona and Kentucky. So, that means just two teams from west of the Mississippi River—Arizona in 1997 and Kansas in 2008—have won the Men’s title in that two-decade span.


The 2017 Final Four will be played at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, home of the NFL’s Arizona Cardinals. Here are the current updated (Sept. 16) Futures Book odds (Outrights) from the Offshore sportsbook in current odds order:


Odds to Win 2016/2017 Men’s NCAA Division I Basketball Championship
Duke Blue Devils +250
Kentucky Wildcats +600
Kansas Jayhawks +750
Louisville Cardinals +1000
Villanova Wildcats +1100
Oregon Ducks +1400
Michigan State Spartans +1600
North Carolina Tar Heels +1800
Arizona Wildcats +2400
Virginia Cavaliers +2800
Wisconsin Badgers +2250
Indiana Hoosiers +2800
Syracuse Orange +2800
West Virginia Mountaineers +3000
Xavier Musketeers +3250
UCLA Bruins +4500
Maryland Terrapins +4500
Purdue Boilermakers +4500
Connecticut Huskies +4500
Texas Longhorns +4500
California Golden Bears +7000
Seton Hall Pirates +7000
Miami-Florida Hurricanes +7500
Iowa State Cyclones +7500
Gonzaga Bulldogs +8000
Utah Utes +8000
Baylor Bears +9000
Florida Gators +9000
Iowa Hawkeyes +9000
Texas A&M Aggies +9000
Butler Bulldogs +9000
Michigan Wolverines +9000
Oklahoma Sooners +9000
USC Trojans +9000
Alabama Crimson Tide +11000
Cincinnati Bearcats +11000
Arizona State Sun Devils +11000
Illinois Fighting Illini +11000
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +11000
Ohio State Buckeyes +11000
South Carolina Gamecocks +11000
Tennessee Volunteers +11000
VCU Rams +11000
NC State Wolfpack +12500
Arkansas Razorbacks +14000
Boise State Broncos +14000
Florida State Seminoles +14000
Fresno State Bulldogs +14000
Rhode Island Rams +14000
SMU Mustangs +14000
San Diego State Aztecs +14000
Vanderbilt Commodores +14000
Wichita State Shockers +14000
Mississippi State Bulldogs +15000
Creighton Bluejays +15000
Georgetown Hoyas +15000
Colorado Buffaloes +18000
Dayton Flyers +18000
St. Mary’s Gaels +18000
Auburn Tigers +18000
Kansas State Wildcats +18000
Oklahoma State Cowboys +18000
Ole Miss Rebels +18000
BYU Cougars +25000
Georgia Bulldogs +22000
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +22000
Marquette Warriors +22000
Memphis Tigers +22000
Minnesota Golden Gophers +22000
Texas Tech Red Raiders +25000
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels +22500
Virginia Tech Hokies +25000
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +22500
LSU Tigers +28000
Missouri Tigers +28000
Nebraska Cornhuskers +28000
Oregon State Beavers +28000
Providence Friars +28000
Stanford Cardinal +28000
Temple Owls +28000
Clemson Tigers +30000
New Mexico Lobos +30000


One Big East Team, Former Big East Teams Seem to Provide the Most Perceived Value, Real Hope This Season
Teams that play or cut their teeth in the Big East Conference always seems to be the underrated NCAAB pick for some reason in this marketplace with big-name teams like Arizona, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, North Carolina and others usually getting the first look from the media, oddsmakers and fans alike. Villanova (Big East), who ended at #4 in the RPI and #1 in the Ken Pomeroy ratings heading into last season’s National Championship game against North Carolina, won the title in somewhat surprise fashion and the Wildcats and Head Coach Jay Wright return Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and Kris Jenkins and could very well repeat in another wide-open hardwood season. And if only one pick could be made in this particular Futures Book market, it would be on defending champs Villanova (11/1 to win National Championship). Louisville (ACC) with Head Coach Rick Pitino always have a good squad and with Donovan Mitchell, Quentin Snyder and newcomers VJ King and Tony Hicks, the Cardinals will be stacked at Guard and can make a March Madness run but getting past the Elite 8 that could be the problem for Louisville (11/1 to win NCAA Championship).

And former Big East and now current ACC conference-mates Syracuse (28/1 to win National Championship)—who won the crown in 2003 and lost PG Michael Gbinije to the NBA Draft to the Detroit Pistons—and Connecticut (75/1 to win National Championship)—now playing in the American Athletic Conference (AAC)—could also be in the mix. And remember that the Huskies—whose Women’s team behind legendary Head Coach Geno Auriemma have W6 of the L8 Women’s titles and who still play their basketball in the Big East Conference—shocked the world by winning the championship in 2014 after winning the championship in 2011. So with Louisville winning it all in 2013, Big East or former Big East teams have won 4 of the L6 NCAA Men’s basketball titles.

As far as being the worst team in College Basketball at covering the Point Spread over the past 5 seasons, College of Charleston (54-88-2) has hit at just a 38% clip, meaning that blindly fading the Cougars over the L4 years would have been a profitable thing, but we all know that few serious sports gamblers will blindly fade a team every game, more likely choosing to look at it as the isolated event it is. Last season, College of Charleston—now just referred to as Charleston by some and who play in the Colonial Athletic Conference—went 11-15-0 ATS in the 2015/16 season after putting up a dismal 8-21-1 ATS record—the same as Pitt two seasons ago—for a pathetic 26.7% winning bet percentage. Over the L10 seasons, four of the five worst College Basketball teams against the Point Spread (minimum 75 lined games) have mostly been somewhat smallish East Coast schools: Quinnipiac (35-50-0, 41.2%), Fordham (106-139-6, 43.3%), Dartmouth (81-106-5, 43.3%), Tulsa-based Oral Roberts (76-98-2, 43.7%) and Rutgers (118-152-3, 43.7%).


2016/17 NCAA College Basketball Futures Book Picks: Louisville +1100, Villanova +1100
2016/17 NCAA College Basketball Futures Longshot Picks: Syracuse +2800, Connecticut +4500

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