NCAAB Betting: Can Seton Hall Keep Rolling Against Florida?

Seton Hall basketball

Thursday, November 24, 2016 2:33 PM GMT

The Seton Hall Pirates were one of last year's top college basketball picks on the way to the Big East Tournament title. But can they cover Thursday's AdvoCare Invitational game in Orlando against the Florida Gators?

College basketball is here, ladies and gentlemen. And so far, the story has been the 'under.' In case you missed it, we took a gander at the early NCAAB trends for 2016-17 and saw the 'under' was off to a hot start: 223-169 (56.9 percent) as we go to press. That's a spicy meatball. Wasn't the 30-second shot clock supposed to cure what ails college hoops?

We can't expect to make 57 percent forever, but for now, we'll need a compelling reason to recommend anything but the 'under' for your college basketball picks. Oh, wait, here come the Seton Hall Pirates. You may remember the Pirates as one of last year's Top 5 ATS teams, going 25-9 SU and 23-10 ATS in what's left of the Big East. Seton Hall will face the Florida Gators on Thanksgiving night 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) at the AdvoCare Invitational from the HP Field House in Orlando; at press time, the Gators are 4-point faves on the very early NCAAB odds board, up quickly from -3 at the open.
 

MAAC Daddies

So what the heck is the AdvoCare Invitational? It used to be the Orlando Classic, then the Old Spice Classic; it's an eight-team tournament, hosted by the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, starting with Thursday's games and leading to a championship game Sunday. There will be consolation rounds to make sure everyone plays three times.
 

Seton Hall receives 15 votes in latest AP Top 25. Florida, who the Pirates face on Thursday, received 34 votes #HALLin #shbb

— Jeremy Schneider (@J_Schneider) November 21, 2016


The Pirates (3-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) are off to a good start this year, landing at No. 36 on Ken Pomeroy's efficiency charts, but they're staring up at the Gators (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) in the No. 10 spot. Pomeroy has a new stat this year called “Adjusted Efficiency Margin” that shows how many points a team would expect to beat an average Division I team by over 100 possessions. Florida checks in at +20.15, roughly 4.5 points better than Seton Hall at +15.77.

So how good is this stat over a small sample size of games? Hard to say, but Pomeroy is the man when it comes to college hoops analytics, and 4.5 points seems to align with the other projections were looking at -- not to mention the line move from Florida -3 to -4. That doesn't leave much betting value ATS, so let's stick with the 'under.'

Free NCAAB Pick: 'Under' 147

Best Line Offered: BookMaker

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