NCAA Tournament South Region: Wichita State -3 Our Free Pick vs. Vanderbilt

Doug Upstone

Monday, March 14, 2016 7:18 PM GMT

Arizona coach Sean Miller has been angry most of the season and after finding out he's been sent to Providence for NCAA Tournament opener to face one of these treacherous clubs.

These were among the last teams in the field and both squads have given off the vibe of being better than their actual records indicate. However, in the Bill Parcell's school of thinking, you are what you are and it is not like either or both teams did not have chances to step out and show the improvement many others has forecasted.

This is the second First Four game on Tuesday on everyone's favorite college basketball channel TruTV (add emogi here) starting around 9:10 Eastern and Wichita State is -3 point favorite with total of 134.5 against Vanderbilt according to NCAA tournament odds.

 

Wichita State
SU and ATS Records - 24-8, 18-12 ATS

Away Record -11-7 and 10-8 ATS

Favorite Record - 22-7 and 18-11 ATS

3 or More Days Rest - 10-4 and 6-6 ATS

Off a SU Loss - 5-2 SU and 4-2 ATS

 

Vanderbilt
SU and ATS Record - 19-12, 15-15 ATS

Away Record - 5-11 and 6-10 ATS

Favorite Record - 17-5 and 13-9 ATS

3 or More Days Rest - 11-5 and 10-6 ATS

Off a SU Loss - 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS

 

The Game Scoop
Wichita State started the season poorly at 2-4, losing to three clubs which eventually would make this field of 68 (Tulsa, USC and Iowa). Missing point guard and leader Fred Van Vleet due to injury played a significant role. Once healthy, they destroyed Utah, went toe to toe with eventual Big East tournament champion Seton Hall and generally made their way through the Missouri Valley.

The different between this Shockers squad and the one's that went to Final Four and Sweet 16 is the last of frontcourt players who can create own shots and score consistently. While players like Shaquille Morris, Anton Grady, Rauno Nurger and Bush Wamukota all have skills they perform well, unless Van Vleet and Ron Baker are making perimeter shots, particularly in the half court offense, defenses pack the paint to prevent dribble penetration by Van Vleet and will take their chances with the Shockers bigs to score.

Coach Gregg Marshall's defense is still as strong as ever, holding opponents to just 38.5 percent shooting at 59.1 points a contest.

Vanderbilt was preseason Top 25, suffered no season-altering injuries and despite countless chances to show how really good they could be, the Commodores failed time after time.

Center junior Damian Jones and sophomore guard Wade Baldwin IV are the Vanderbilt mainstays. The 7-0 foot Jones averages 14 points and seven rebounds per game and Baldwin tosses in 14.3 PPG, hands out 5.2 dimes PG and grabs four rebounds. Though Vandy only permits 38.6 field goal percentage and averages six blocks a game with their two seven-footers, where the numbers breakdown is opposing teams take five more shots a contest, which is part of their weakness besides quickness and foot speed.

 

Spread Winner and Totals Lean
The common theme in Wichita State's last three losses were they faced teams that used the entire shot clock and did everything possible to prevent the Shockers from running. Vanderbilt does not play that style, which should benefit Marshall's crew. With seniors Baker and Van Vleet, this is their last rodeo and having a almost 10 days off should refresh them after looking leg weary at Arch Madness.

Do not know how many chances to give the Commodores. The last being the host team in SEC tournament and falling to short-handed Tennessee crew without best player is unexplainable. For NCAA tournament picks, do I think Vandy could win, sure, but my preference is the Shockers to win and cover and they are perfect 6-0 ATS after making 20% or less of three-point attempts.

I will also side with the UNDER with these defenses.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Wichita State -3
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes