NCAA Tournament Picks: Take Both Favorites This Saturday

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, March 26, 2016 3:53 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 26, 2016 3:53 PM UTC

Our college basketball analyst provides an insightful betting preview article on both of Saturday’s NCAA tournament odds for Regional Finals.

Oklahoma vs. Oregon
I sometimes toss aside all handicapping logic when it comes to games of this magnitude, and trust my own personal eye test. This qualifies as one of those situations. I’m fully aware that Oklahoma is a very experienced team, and most times than not that pays huge dividends in the NCAA Tournament. However, I’ve really been impressed with the overall game of Oregon during “The Big Dance”.

First and foremost, Oregon enters this West Regional Final on an eleven game winning streak. I feel they’re more diversified defensively than Oklahoma, and in my eyes clearly the better rebounding team. During their three NCAA Tournament games, Oregon has held its opponents to 61.3 points per outing and 39.8% shooting. In addition, the Ducks possessed a substantial +8.0 rebound per game differential during those contests.

The one thing that keeps popping into my head when evaluating Oklahoma is they rely heavily on their perimeter shooting. When teams meeting this profile shoot a high percentage at this time of the year, they always give themselves a very realistic chance of winning. I do believe the Sooners will be hard pressed to do so against a very active defensive team like Oregon. I see the Ducks disrupting Oklahoma’s offensive rhythm, and thus affecting their shooting numbers substantially.

I see no underdog value in this contest, and especially in light of such a small point spread. I’m going to fade the underdog for one of my Saturday NCAA Tournament picks.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3003917, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,19,92,238,169], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NCAA Tournament Pick: Oregon -1½ -105
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Villanova vs. Kansas
You can’t play better than Villanova has in their first three NCAA Tournament games, going 3-0 ATS, winning by an average of 24.0 points per game, and covering by a combined 44.5 points. That’s especially been the case on the offensive end of the floor. The Wildcats have averaged 88.3 points scored per outing and also shot a blistering hot 59.9%. However, Kansas will be far and away the best defensive team Villanova has seen not only in the NCAA Tourney, but arguably better than they’ve faced all season long.

Kansas has held opponents to 39.7% shooting, and also allowed them to make only 32.3% of its three point tries this season. The Jayhawks enter this Regional Final on Saturday riding a 17 game win streak, and have been an extremely profitable 14-3 ATS (82.4%) during that stretch.

These teams have played one common opponent this season, and that was the Oklahoma Sooners. Kansas defeated Oklahoma twice, while Villanova sustained a 23 point blowout loss to the Sooners.

I’m going to have a strong lean toward the small favorite in this contest. The current NCAA Tournament odds at Heritage provides me with a best combination of number and price for this specific wager.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3003916, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,19,92,238,169], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NCAA Tournament Pick: Kansas -2 -110
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

comment here