The San Diego State Aztecs square off with the Arizona Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament West Regional semifinal. The game will take place at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California with the opening tip slated for 10:15 PM ET. According to NCAA basketball odds Arizona is a 7.5 point favorite and the posted total is 121.5. These teams met once this season in early November with Arizona winning 69-60 at San Diego State, and covering as a 3.5 point favorite. A real eye opening disparity between that early season contest and this one in the NCAA Tournament involves the total. The regular season meeting had a closing total of 146.0 and the total in this contest is 24.5-points less.
These teams are two of the best defensively in the country. San Diego State is #2 nationally in scoring defense allowing just 56.6 points per game, and Arizona is #5 holding opponents to 58.3 points per contest. The Wildcats are 5th nationally in field goal percentage defense at 38.0%, and the Aztecs are 8th at 38.3%. Both of these teams have been even better than that in each of their last 5-games. In those recent 5 contests San Diego State has allowed an average of 53.4 points and has held opponents to 37.0% shooting from the floor. Arizona has allowed an average of 55.4 points and allowed opponents to convert on 34.2% of their field goal attempts in the identical time span. San Diego State has gone under the total in 5 of their last 6-games with an average combined score of 115.3 points.
Free Throw Shooting
These are the two worst free throw shooting teams in the “Sweet 16”. Arizona has only converted on 65.5% of their free throw attempts on the season. The Wildcats have been even worse over their last 5-games making just 61.3% of their tries. San Diego State hasn’t fared much better at 66% on the year.
off Impressive Wins
Although neither of these teams were impressive in their opening games of the tournament, both were very good in their 3rd round wins. Arizona just dismantled a very good Gonzaga team 84-61 on Sunday while easily covering as a 7.5 point favorite. San Diego State thoroughly outclassed North Dakota State on Saturday 63-44, and captured the money with the utmost ease as a 4.0 point favorite.
Totals Betting System
Any team (San Diego State) in game 15 of the season or beyond with a total of between 120.0 to 129.5, that averages between 67 to 74-points per game, and they saw a combined 110-points or less scored in their previous game, versus an opponent which is allowing 63-points or less per game, has seen 58 of those 81-games (71.6%) go under the total in the last 5 seasons. Bet on this affair to go under the total for your NCAA Tournament picks.
NCAA Tournament Pick: San Diego State/Arizona to go under the total of 121.0