NCAA Tournament Picks: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Darin Zank

Saturday, March 21, 2015 3:40 PM GMT

Wisconsin and Oregon met for a wild NCAA tournament game last March, the Badgers coming from behind to win, on their way to the Final Four. The Ducks get their shot at revenge when the teams meet again Sunday evening in a West Regional “third-round” game in Omaha.

Badgers-Ducks Betting Odds
The NCAA Tournament odds opened the betting on this game with Wisconsin favored by 12 points, the total offered at 139.5. Those numbers were holding steady in the early action.

According to Sagarin's PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com the Badgers should be favored by 13.5 points for this game.

Those who believe Oregon might take this game outright could get +703 on the moneyline at BetDSI.

 

Badgers-Ducks: Background
Wisconsin has won seven games in a row, and 17 of its last 18, after taking care of business Friday against Coastal Carolina, winning 86-72. The Badgers withstood some early hot shooting from the Chanticleers, breaking away for a 15-point halftime lead, let CC score the first two hoops of the second half, then pulled away from there. Wisconsin, favored by 20 points, had the spread covered with just under four minutes to go, but allowed the Chanticleers to score the last nine points of the game, passing on the cash.

For the night the Badgers shot 54 percent from the floor, 11-for-27 from 3-point range and nine-for-12 from the FT line. They also won the battle on the boards by a 36-25 margin.

Friday's game flew OVER its total of 131, as UW and CC combined to go 18-for-39 on 3-pointers.

With the victory/non-cover Wisconsin is now 14-2 SU, but only 8-8 ATS this season against teams that made the Big Dance. The Badgers are also only 9-13-1 ATS over their last 23 games, in large part because of the big lines they've been facing.

On the Pac-12 side of this match-up Oregon has won 12 of its last 14 games, after ousting Oklahoma State Friday night 79-73. The Ducks trailed by eight points late in the first half, but used a Joseph Young scoring spurt to take a four-point lead into halftime. Oregon later led by eight points in the second half, allowed the Cowboys to get within one with about four minutes to go, then closed out the victory from there.

On the night the Ducks shot 55 percent from the floor, and made 14 of 18 free-throws, winning outright as one-point underdogs. Also, that game played OVER its total of 136.

With Friday's victory/cover Oregon is now 5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS this season against teams that made the NCAA Tournament.

These teams met exactly one year ago, in this exact same spot as Number One Seed in the West Region bracket, Wisconsin winning a doozy of a game in Milwaukee 85-77. Oregon led that game by a dozen at the half, and by a bucket late, but the Badgers ended the game on a 15-5 run for the come-from-behind victory.

Wisconsin even sneaked out a cover as a six-point favorite, and that game cruised OVER its total of 145.

 

Totals Betting Trends
Oregon has played six UNDERS in its last 10 games, in part because it's been dealing with some relatively high totals, in the upper 130s and 140s. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has played five OVERS in its last seven games, in part because it's been facing some relatively low totals.

 

Badgers-Ducks Free Pick
Wisconsin has won its last seven games, five against teams that made the tournament, by an average of 14 points per. If the Badgers win by 14 Sunday they'll cover. As for Oregon, while we liked what we saw Friday night, we're having trouble getting those three losses to Arizona this season, by 18, 34 and 38 points, out of our heads. We'll give the points with UW for Sunday with our NCAA tournament picks.

Free NCAA Tournament Pick: Wisconsin -12 at 5Dimes