NCAA Tournament Picks: Assessing the Futures Bets Damage After A Weekend Full of Upsets

Kevin Stott

Monday, March 23, 2015 11:47 AM GMT

Last week we presented an anti-Kentucky approach to trying to win a humble amount of cash on the NCAA College Basketball Tournament by wagering a very small amount ($48.30) on 15 Futures picks. So, where do we stand now?

In this space in Cyberspace here at Sportsbook Review last week, we took a real look at an extremely low-money output, high-entertainment series of Futures bets aimed at trying to make a little bit of money betting in this NCAA Men’s Division Basketball Tournament that prohibitive favorite Kentucky (+137 heading into the NCAA Tournament, bet365) would somehow get beat in this 2015 version of March Madness before making it to the Final Four, or thereabouts. But, if clicking on the accompanying story link, please pay no mind to the lovely Iowa State picture on it My Fair Reader—as yours truly would have preferred a Notre Dame image on St. Patrick’s Day Eve—being Irish and all—but my little Leprechaun-ass failed to remember to leave a little green note hinting at the sheer emeraldy beauty of the the idea of a Fighting Irish photo with my story saying to the Publishing Powers That Be that this gallant Notre Dame squad might actually have a chance to surprise and that a Notre Dame image might suit my piece best—as its seems this team could be a very viable alternative in this Kentucky-heavy Tournament—in the Big Dance, which tipped off on March 17—St.Patrick’s Day. But no, no, no, Seamus, I was in way, way, way too much of hurry to leave a simple note—obviously hopped up on Shamrock Shakes and Raisinettes—so the Iowa State Cyclones were probably d-o-o-m-e-d, doomed the minute that picture of them went up. Doomed. So, sorry to any Cyclone backers or fans or alumni or players or whomever. Superstition knows no boundaries brother and I am afraid your loss may be Notre Dame’s gain. So sorry. And, I did see the game yesterday (Saturday) and we could cry about your (and my) brutal, 60-59 loss to No. 14-seed UAB later here if you would like, but for now you Corn Freaks, best dry those tears and pull for your Midwestern brothers from over there in Indiana (South Bend) because it looks like the ACC and the Pac-10 are trying to run rampant on the NCAA Tournament here in these crooked and extremely pollen-laden Ides of March.


As expected, the undefeated Wildcats (36-0) advanced through Rounds 1 and 2 of El Gran Baile, disposing of Hampton (79-56) and Cincinnati (64-51), respectively on Thursday and Saturday  in the Midwest Region at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville where Kentucky was expected to prance on through. And it did. On Thursday (March 26), the Wildcats will be playing West Virginia in the Sweet 16 the second Midwest Regional Semifinal (CBS, 9:45 p.m. ET/6:45 p.m. PT), while Notre Dame will be dancing with a team—Wichita State—on which we still have $1 on to win in all at 150/1, so, obviously best to pull for the Fighting Irish to win this one in Thursday evening’s opening and other Midwest Regional semifinal (CBS, 7:15 p.m. ET/4:15 p.m. PT). After all, Notre Dame (theoretically and now hopefully) upsetting Kentucky in the Midwest Regional final on March 26 (Saturday) is the fulcrum of this entire endeavor in the first place.


The Real-World Bets On The Tournament Headed In

To Win NCAA Tournament: Louisville—40/1 ($2.40 to win $96)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Iowa 285/1—($2 to win $570)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Notre Dame 47/1—($10 to win $470)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Iowa State 39/1—($5 to win $390)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Arizona +875—($10 to win $87.50)

To Win NCAA Tournament: BYU 450/1—($1 to win $450)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Ohio State 150/1—($1 to win $150)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Wichita State 90/1—($1 to win $90)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Northern Iowa 155/1—($1 to win $155)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Indiana 600/1—($1 to win $600)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Louisville 100/1—(90¢ to win $90)

To Win Midwest Region: Notre Dame 11/1—($5 to win $55)

To Win East Region: Northern Iowa 12/1—($5 to win $60)

NCAA Championship Game Matchup: Notre Dame-Duke 110/1—($2 wins $220)

NCAA Championship Game Matchup: Notre Dame-Iowa St 295/1—($1 wins $295) 


The Losers (Through Two Rounds: 0-8 -$17)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Iowa 285/1—($2 to win $570)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Iowa State 39/1—($5 to win $390)

To Win NCAA Tournament: BYU 450/1—($1 to win $450)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Ohio State 150/1—($1 to win $150)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Northern Iowa 155/1—($1 to win $155)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Indiana 600/1—($1 to win $600)

To Win East Region: Northern Iowa 12/1—($5 to win $60)

NCAA Championship Game Matchup: Notre Dame-Iowa St 295/1—($1 wins $295)

 

The Not-Yet Losers  (Through Two Rounds: 7 Still Alive: $31.30)
 
To Win NCAA Tournament: Louisville—40/1 ($2.40 to win $96)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Notre Dame 47/1—($10 to win $470)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Arizona +875—($10 to win $87.50)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Wichita State 90/1—($1 to win $90)

To Win NCAA Tournament: Louisville 100/1—(90¢ to win $90)

To Win Midwest Region: Notre Dame 11/1—($5 to win $55)

NCAA Championship Game Matchup: Notre Dame-Duke 110/1—($2 wins $220)

 

What We’re Looking For Now
The biggest payday (and potential profit for this series of 15 bets) ahead would lie with our aforementioned Notre Dame Fighting Irish (47/1, $10) winning it all ($470 win), with a Notre Dame-Duke NCAA Championship Game matchup (110/1, $2) being the second-best financial result here (+220 win). But probably the most realistic and logical bet left to churn out a small profit and give credence to at this point en El Locura de Marzo would be if Pac-10 heavyweight Arizona (+875, $10) could find a way to win it all ($87.50 win), guaranteeing at least some kind of solid (percentage-wise) win from the $48.30 worth of bets. The lessor, still realistically more longshot bets which we will be pulling for (and definitely having some fun with) will be Wichita State to win the championship at 90/1 ($90 win) and those Notre Dame Fighting Irish to knock off Kentucky (Even to win championship, Paddy Power) in the Midwest Region final—although one wager will be eliminated when either Notre Dame or Wichita State lose their showdown—as winning the Notre Dame To Win Midwest Region (11/1, $5, win $55) pick would guarantee at least a $6.70 profit on all this mess before Friday even hits the pillow. We hope. Hey, a girl can dream. And she shall dream in Green and Gold this week thank you...until maybe Notre Dame loses on Thursday to the Shockers or on Saturday to the Wildcats...and then she shall dream in that normal shade of grey, but not the shade of Grey dreamt of by those freaky 50 Shades Of Grey people, but a shade of grey that borders on an even grayer (hair) side. Or maybe a deep shade of Arizona Wildcats cardinal and navy blue if it feels right. But hopefully, at this time next week, we will somehow be dreaming in that desired, potential big payday Green and Gold and trying to turn Touchdown Jesus in South Bend into Slam Dunk or Three-Point Jesus. Anything but Beaten By Kentucky Jesus at this crucial point, I suppose. Man your hatches. We’re pulling for 5 teams right now in one way or another (Notre Dame, Arizona, Louisville, Wichita State and Duke, to make a theoretical championship game against Notre Dame at those aforementioned, longshot 295/1 NCAA Tournament odds), and two of them (Notre Dame, Wichita State) meet in the Sweet 16, as mentioned, so it’s honestly all about the Fighting Irish, Arizona and Louisville from here on out.


Conclusion
Why have I no Gonzaga Futures? And where are my perennial Michigan State and Xavier throws, Billy? And was it an abundance of punk in my panties that prevented me from pulling the trigger on North Carolina State? Perhaps shenanigans from the Easter Bunny a tad early? Half of my perceived Mojo was thinking that Villanova had absolutely no right being a #1 seed and that that those Wildcats were possibly the fourth best Wildcats in the NCAA Men’s Division 1 Basketball Tournament overall in the first place, and that they would get bounced from this Big Dance faster than I got tossed out of Chuck E. Cheese for using forged tickets last Tuesday. Who put these crappy NCAA Tournament picks in? Whoa, whoa, whoa, pump your brakes Master Pee, it is me and I am him, slim with the tilted brim, and I am thee so stop shouting...we shall not deem this stuff ‘crap’ until That Fat Lady done sung and she ain’t even dressed yet so get up off me, bruh. Until then, it shall still be referred to as ‘stuff’ and not ‘crap’ Por favor. And then, if and when—and only if and when—Kentucky disposes of my now, suddenly beloved Notre Dame Fighting Irish, then we can chirp like the spring baby sparrows crying to their beautiful Mama’s for food. Until then, we shall hide under the bed with a stash of Funyums, beef jerky and water rations with the TV on CBS, waiting for Thursday night, hoping The Cool Cat and The Old Writer can somehow hold it in for the next 96 hours. And when I write ‘hold it in,’ I am not referring to my emotions, señorita. The street heats the urgency of Now.

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES LONGSHOT PICK: North Carolina State 80/1 (Coral)