NCAA Tournament Pick: Back Villanova To Become National Champions Tonight

Charles Stark

Monday, April 4, 2016 11:34 AM GMT

Monday, Apr. 4, 2016 11:34 AM GMT

The National Championship awaits an amazing game between Villanova and North Carolina. Odds make UNC the small favorite although Villanova has been more impressive. Who will take home the title?

Odds makers have Villanova as a +2.5 underdog like at Pinnacle Sports -104. For my NCAA championship pick I will back the Wildcats plus the points because they matchup very well with UNC.

 

Villanova Wildcats
Villanova averages 78 points per game and ranks second in the country hitting 57.3% on their two point shots. They were absolutely on fire against Oklahoma and should come into this game with a lot of confidence against a UNC team that is similar in pace to the Sooners. What I thought hurt Oklahoma was this key statistic that they allow teams to really get up and down the floor. UNC plays this type of tempo allowing opponents 60 field goal attempts per game which ranks 254th in the country.

That type of pace should play into the hands of a Wildcat team that can flat out score as they rank sixth and ninth in the country in shooting efficiency and effective field goal percentage respectively. In this tournament they have proven well up to the task to defend very good offensive teams and I anticipate they will have a good game plan going in against UNC.

The Wildcats matchup with UNC very well strength for strength as they are a decent defensive team beyond the arc but a very good team from the paint extended allowing opponents just 44.5% on their two point shots. Rebounding might a bit of an issue but Villanova has been good this season in limiting opponents to just 32.2 boards per game which ranks in the top 30 in the country.

 

North Carolina Tar Heels
The Tar Heels average 83 points per game which ranks seventh in the country and average 64 field goal attempts per game which ranks fifth.  They also rank second in the country in field goals made per game and offensively can be really difficult to slow down. What should help Villanova though is that UNC is not a very good three point shooting team and the Wildcats actually matchup well with them from the inside out.

Defensively, the Tar Heels are good not great and I expect Villanova to have a good night scoring. Pace and tempo wise, as mentioned, I believe will favor the Wildcats as percentagewise the Tar Heels have not defended from beyond the arc particularly well this season. Although they defended the Orange decently from distance allowing just 32%, against Notre Dame they allowed 50% and over 40% against Indiana.

According to the NCAA championship odds boards, this could be trouble tonight against a Wildcat team that can score from every area of the floor and will be the most athletic and best defensive team North Carolina has faced this tournament.

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Free NCAAB Tournament Pick: Villanova +2.5 (-104)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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