NCAA Tournament Betting: Value Squarely On Villanova To Upset Kansas

Charles Stark

Saturday, March 26, 2016 12:03 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 26, 2016 12:03 PM UTC

Kansas is the number one seed and small favorite on the NCAA Tournament Odds, but Villanova has been playing tremendous basketball all season. Which team will continue on?

Villanova Wildcats
Villanova ranks third in the country averaging both 57% on their two point shots and 77.9% at the line. The last time out I took Miami as my NCAA Tournament pick against them much to my chagrin because Villanova looked fantastic and I don't want to repeat that mistake again. This a well-balanced team that should be well up to the challenge of taking on the number one overall seed. Offensively they are extremely good and rank eighth and 11th in the country in shooting efficiency and effective field goal percentage respectively. They don't push the tempo all that much but across the board statistically this team can flat-out score the basketball. Defensively they rank as one of the better teams in the country as well and they matchup with Kansas in every category except for defensive three point shooting percentage. This is one of Kansas's strengths and one of Villanova's weaknesses. However, despite the strong shooting percentage from distance the Jayhawks actually don't put up that many per game averaging just 18.8 per contest which ranks in the bottom half of all NCAA teams. I anticipate this game will not be very up-tempo and for both of these teams to take quality shots.


Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas averages 80.8 points per game which ranks 15th in the country and shoot 41.8% from beyond the arc which ranks fourth. As mentioned, they don't put up the three all that often so I don't believe this will be a point of contention. Although they do come in is the number one seed this year has been a whirlwind of different teams ranked at number one. Currently Kansas is playing really good basketball but I like how Villanova matches up with them on both sides of the ball. When we start to break down the statistics these teams are really even from the pace to the shooting percentages both offensively and defensively. All we really have to do is look at their shooting efficiency where Villanova ranks eighth and Kansas ranks ninth and their effective field-goal percentage where Villanova ranks 11th and Kansas again ninth. Considering how evenly matched these teams are and it might come down to a turnover or who is hitting their free throws. In both of those categories Villanova has the advantage as they rank third in the country in free-throw percentage compared to Kansas who is ranked 118th, and the Wildcats rank a percentage point better in turnovers per play.


NCAA Basketball Odds
NCAA Tournament Odds makers have made Villanova a +2.5 underdog like at 5Dimes -105. For one of my NCAA tournament picks I'm going to grab the points with the Wildcats as I look for them to take this game to the wire or possibly pull the upset. Kansas is great but don't sleep on Villanova.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Villanova +2.5 -105
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes.

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