NCAA Tournament Betting: Davidson and California on Money Line

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, March 21, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Thursday, Mar. 21, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

We have a twinbill of upset picks in the NCAA Tournament Thursday as we are selecting Davidson and California to both win outright as money line dogs and already ruin some brackets.

We have a special treat (we hope) on Thursday with not one but two outright underdog upset picks in the NCAA Tournament.

Our first upset pick goes Thursday afternoon in the East Region where the 14th seeded Davidson Wildcats (26-7, 9-4 away) take on the third seeded Marquette Golden Eagles (23-8, 5-6 away) at Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY at 3:10 ET in a game televised nationally on truTV.

The Money Line at 5 Dimes has Davidson as a decided underdog for this contest with at current odds of +156.

Do not look now but Davidson currently owns the longest winning streak in the country at 17 games and the Wildcats easily ran threw the Southern Conference ultimately winning the conference tournament championship game 74-55 over the College of Charleston. If you are concerned about the rise in class, consider that Davidson held a double-digit lead on the road at New Mexico during early non-conference play before losing by just five points at The Pit, and the Wildcats also held a double-digit lead over top ranked Gonzaga around that same time before losing on a neutral floor. Yes Davidson ended up losing both games but the Wildcats have gotten better as the season has gone on, and their good three-point shooting that ranked third in the Southern Conference can key an upset over Marquette’s suspect perimeter defense.

Marquette won six of its last seven regular season games, but it then lost to Notre Dame in its first game in the Big East Tournament. The problem with the Golden Eagles this year is that they went a perfect 16-0 at home but were just 7-8 either on the road or on neutral courts .The Golden Eagles’ Pomeroy profile is really not that special for a three-seed, as while they rank 18th in offensive efficiency, they are just 85th in effective field goal percentage and 241st in offensive turnover percentage. They are also 75th in effective field goal percentage allowed defensively and 10th in the Big East in three-point defense, which may prove to be the death blow here.

NCAA Basketball Pick: Davidson +156 (Money Line)

[gameodds]14/225003/19-238-93-92-1096/us[/gameodds]

We stay in the East Region bracket-wise but not geographically for our second upset pick on Thursday night as the 12th seeded California Golden Bears (20-11, 6-5 away) take on the fifth seeded UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (25-9, 6-6 away) at HP Pavilion in San Jose, CA at 7:27 ET in a game also televised nationally on truTV.

The Money Line at 5 Dimes has California as a nice-sized underdog for this contest with at current odds of +140.

As has been mentioned many times across the airwaves, the 12-seed upsetting the five-seed has been the most common upset in the round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament, and this seems like a prime candidate to keep that tradition alive. California had a very strong close to the season thanks to playing some suffocating defense. The Golden Bears have gone 7-2 the last nine games while allowing a measly 36.4 percent shooting, and this streak includes impressive road wins at Arizona and at Oregon. Cal ended up ranking third in the Pac-12 in defensive efficiency while leading the conference in effective field goal percentage allowed and in two-point defense at a scant 41.6 percent. All things considered, California seems underseeded as a 12-seed but a very nice consolation is that the Golden Bears get to stay close to home in San Jose, which is about a one-hour drive from Berkley.

That venue cannot make UNLV very happy as the Runnin’ Rebels went just 6-6 on the road this season, and after perhaps their best road win all season at San Diego State early in the Mountain West schedule, the Rebels went just 2-4 on the road the rest of the way, winning only at lowly Nevada and Wyoming while losing at such second division teams as Fresno State and Air Force. Despite their reputation, the Rebels were not a very good offensive team this season ranking 103rd in offensive efficiency and 129th in effective field goal percentage, and California has the stifling defense to take away UNLV’s biggest offensive threat in super freshman Anthony Bennett. Thus, look for California to advance with an upset close to home.

NCAA Basketball Pick: California +140 (Money Line)

[gameodds]14/225008/19-238-93-92-1096/us[/gameodds]

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