NCAA Tournament Basketball Picks: Best Over/Under Plays

Joe Catalano

Sunday, March 15, 2015 3:08 PM UTC

Sunday, Mar. 15, 2015 3:08 PM UTC

We've already come upon some big plays this Sunday in the NCAA Tournament Finals. Let's see how the betting totals come into play as there's a couple of appealing picks in which the betting public can benefit from.

Connecticut Huskies (20-13,10-8) vs. #20 SMU Mustangs (26-6, 15-3)

AAU Championship Finals
As expected, the betting total in this game is rather low at 123. The Huskies are coming off of a 47-42 victory over Tulsa and although they average 64.5 points per game on the season, they've been playing in very low scoring, heart pounding games.

Connecticut has won their last 3 games while holding their opponents to just 46.3 points per game. There have been no breaks in these tournament games and you can expect player to be tired. This would lead me to believe that this game would be leaning in the direction of under the total.

Connecticut has basically been relying on the tandem of Ryan Boatright and Rodney Purvis. While it's likely that the experience of Boatright will lead to another 20 point effort, Purvis is a bit of a question mark. As of late, the sophomore has played very well, averaging 13.6 points per game in his last 3 games, but I don't see much offense coming from anywhere else but this tandem.


Can SMU Keep the Momentum Going?
I've already mentioned that I liked Connecticut for my NCAA Basketball picks in this game as I think that they're a team of destiny. That said, it will be quite a challenge as the Mustangs come into this game as the betting favorites and are averaging nearly 70 points per game.

I look for Connecticut to slow down the pace of this game. SMU leading scoring leader, Nick Moore, has been a mixed bag of tricks lately and can't really be relied upon. While we can count on Moore putting up in excess of 15 shots, he hasn't been efficient as of late and that will be a major concern for the Mustangs. In Moore's last 5 games, he has failed to shoot 50% in any of those games and has shot below 30% in 3 out of his last 5 games. Look for things to go Connecticut's way as they slowly pick apart the SMU defense. Under the total is the play.

NCAA Basketball Pick- Connecticut/SMU Under 122 at Bovada


Michigan State Spartans (23-10, 12-6) vs.#6 Wisconsin Badgers (30-3, 16-2)

Big-Ten Championship Finals
While Wisconsin has been a defensive-oriented team for the past few years, two factors come into play where the total is concerned; the urgency for Michigan State to have a good showing and the offense of Wisconsin, who average 71.6 points per game. In a losing cause, players have a tendency to foul unnecessarily because they don't want the game to end and that can turn and under the total into an over.

For Wisconsin, Frank Kaminsky will be looking to make a statement in this game. He played poorly in his last game, but this 18.2 point per game scorer will have an improved game here. Sam Dekker has played well in a supporting well for the Badgers, averaging 16 points and 7 rebounds per game.

For the Spartans, they come into this game like a ball of fire with a ton of momentum, defeating Maryland to get to the finals.The play of Denzel Valentine will be key to a good showing for the Spartans and a possible over the total for the game.

Valentine had a rough time of it against the Terps with just 3 points and will look to bounce back. He had a 23 point performance previous to the Maryland game against Ohio State and I expect him to play well along with leading scorer, Travis Trice. This will be a very competitive game. Michigan State didn't come all this way to tank it in the finals. Over is the play with a low betting total in NCAA Basketball odds.

NCAA Basketball Pick- Michigan State/Wisconsin Over 125.5 at 5 Dimes

Check out today's best NCAA Basketball Picks ATS, too

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