NCAA Basketball Pro Capper Pick: Under On South Florida-Troy Total

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, December 1, 2016 3:52 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 1, 2016 3:52 PM UTC

Sometimes the best NCAA basketball betting values come in games involving mid-major conference teams. SBR contributor Ross Benjamin believes that’s the case in regards to Thursday's South Florida at Troy game.


South Florida Bulls At Troy Trojans

Troy (3-3) will entertain South Florida (3-2) with the opening tip coming at 8 p.m. ET. This will be the second ever meeting between these schools. The first came a season ago when Troy defeated South Florida 82-77. The Trojans were an 8-point road underdog in that contest, and the game easily went over the total of 139.0. At of this writing, the NCAA basketball odds at have Troy as a 5.5-point favorite.


Betting The Total

The NCAA basketball totals board at BookMaker has an 'over/under' of 137.5 for this one.  Speaking of Bookmaker, it is presently offering new customers 50% cash bonuses on all initial deposits of up to $300.

South Florida has gone under the total in 2 of its 3 lined games. The Bulls are averaging just 5 made 3-point shots per game and are converting on a terrible 61.9% of their free-throw attempts. Considering that Troy is allowing its opponents only 18 free-throw attempts per game, it doesn’t bode well for South Florida in that regard.

Troy is 4-1 'under' the total in lined games thus far. Furthermore, Troy has gone 12-1 'under' in home games where this been a posted total during the past 2 seasons. Like South Florida, Troy has also been unproductive with its 3-point shooting, and that’s proven by an uninspiring 31.7% conversion rate on those long-range attempts.

Here’s what I find to be very interesting in regards to the total on this contest. The average total on Troy’s lined games this season is 144.8, and conversely it’s 144.0 for South Florida. Yet, the best sportsbooks have a total of 137.5 across the board for this matchup. I understand that each team has shown a tendency to play lower-scoring games thus far relative to their past totals. However, this is a sizable adjustment by the oddsmakers, and they’re seldom wrong when doing so based on my past experiences. I’m going to lean towards this game being a low-scoring affair, and one of my Thursday NCAA basketball predictions will be indicative of such.

NCAAB Free Pick: Under 137.5Best Line Offered: BookMaker

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